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Showing posts from May, 2013

Coronation Cup preview

There's more than just one Group 1 race on Derby day, the Coronation Cup is the traditional test for older horses but once again it's dominated by St Nicholas Abbey. Returning to the blog is regular contributor @lara_pocock with her look at this time-honoured contest.

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Coronation Cup

The Group One Coronation Cup over the Derby course and distance is held in the lead up to the big race and has been won the last two years by the Aidan O'Brien-trained St Nicholas Abbey. The six-year-old is set to take on four rivals in this year's renewal, which means the five runner race is a betting dream if the odds-on favourite hacks up as easily as everyone expects.

The ground at Epsom is officially given as good to soft, although with another dry day forecast this could change.

1. Chamonix (25-1) - A lightly raced four-year-old from the O'Brien stable who is likely to act as pacemaker here. He has won three of his five starts, including two Listed race…

The Derby 2013, Epsom

A classic race deserves one of the world's better/older/wiser judges. Ever since I saw him win a fortune on High Rise in 1998, Jon Thompson has qualified for that mantle. He's a blog regular for major race meetings, and you can follow him on @jaytee6666

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Derby preview 2013

A field of just 12 line up for the Epsom Derby on Saturday with the racing world waiting to crown a new superstar at just after 4pm local time. It’s the second smallest field this decade although an improvement on the eight rivals that Camelot faced 12 months ago and we have to go back to the success of The Sir Michael Stoute-trained/Kieren Fallon-ridden Kris Kin in 2003 for the last full field of 20 runners.

Here’s a look at each of the 12 runners in race card order for the 2013 renewal:

Battle Of Marengo. Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Jockey: Joseph O’Brien.
The most fancied of Ballydoyle’s five runners since the omission of Magician at the 48 hour declaration stage this colt by Galileo …

Oaks preview

A special race needs a special preview, so we've called in the experts from GeeGeez for shrewd analysis. On their site, you'll find a preview of the entire day, plus a wide range of racing expertise and resources. You can also follow the man behind the site, Matt Bisogno on Twitter, @mattbisogno.

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4.00 INVESTEC OAKS (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo)

The big race. The Oaks. A Group 1 for fillies over a mile and a half, and it looks a bobby dazzler this year. Secret Gesture leads the market after her demolition job in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, but this will be a different kettle of kedgeree altogether.

Before we dig into the form, let’s consider the trends, and the first thing to note is that plenty of big-priced lassies have prevailed here in recent years. Indeed, in the last five years, there have been two 20/1 winners and a 33/1 champ.

Aidan O’Brien has won four of the last fifteen Oaks’, but not always with his first string. Was was a 20/1 shot l…

Next Everton Manager market

Pretty proud of this. As you'll see by the number of candidates backed and laid on the right hand side, there's been a lot of work involved in creating this green book!

I haven't deliberately hid the stakes under My Bets, I had to turn the screen on its side (CTRL+ALT+right arrow) to take this screenshot, it's bloody hard to navigate the touchpad when the screen is rotated!

Where did I start? With a £20 lay on Neil Lennon at 3 on the first day, worst risk at any time was that £40. Since then I've had close to 300 bets (and pieces of bets) matched to create this. Read more about trading Next Manager markets here. This market was always going to take time to be decided with many names mentioned. The Stoke market was never as exciting, in fact it was quite stale to trade and I ended up making a small loss. It happens.



I think this market is getting close to its natural end, so it's time to wind down. I've still got at least 100 offers on screen, but none …

'Betfair king' gets five years in the clink

The conman portraying himself as the 'Betfair king' finally got his come-uppance yesterday, five years' gaol.

'King of Betfair' jailed for conning friends out of £400,000

A gambler who boasted of being the “King of Betfair” after convincing family friends to sink £400,000 into his bogus betting system was jailed for five years today.

Elliott Short, 26, used a chauffeur-driven Mercedes, stayed in upmarket hotels and was a regular at London nightclubs. Short also jetted off on holidays around the globe and spent thousands of pounds on designer clothes from Harrods.

He even managed to dupe the News of the World into running a story about his apparent success, convincing reporters he had netted more than £21 million from his system.

More history on the story below.

'Betfair king' turns out to be just another conman

News of the World caught out by deluded 'Betfair millionaire'

If it sounds to be good to be true, it ALWAYS is. Making a regular profit f…

French Open preview

Just a short one this time, for the first time in about a decade I haven't been commissioned to write one and time to do a proper one is very scarce at the moment!

The men's top half simply comes down to Djokovic v Nadal, and Rafa wins that nine times out of 10 if fit. Not worth looking any further.

The bottom half is far more interesting. The obvious choices to reach the final or win their respective quarters are Federer and Ferrer but the prices reflect that. Other options:

Berdych - beat Djokovic recently in Rome on the way to the semi-finals, a result matching his record in Madrid. Semi-finalist here in 2010. Tricky opener against Monfils, R4 vs Almagro should be fine (9-3 h2h) but trails Ferrer, his likely QF opponent, 3-7.

Almagro - a double-figure ranking gives an expectation of R4 exit, maybe QF with the right luck. No different this year.

Raonic - already underway with a win over Malisse. Has been coached until recently by a claycourter, so certainly not like a fish…

Live odds to be banned on TV in Australia

It had to happen sooner or later. It wasn't just the wowsers who were complaining, it was the vocal majority and it threatened to be significant issue in an election year. Since Betfair took various Australian governments to court and had the draconian and protectionist advertising legislation repealed, it has become a free-for-all. The advertising industry and broadcasters loved it - with the global financial crisis affecting most other industries, suddenly there was intense competition for advertising slots and premium prices were being paid. Suddenly it became very hard to avoid betting advertising anywhere - on TV, in the papers, online, signage at sporting events or on radio. This may not have been such an issue in other nations, but with plague proportions of pokies (known elsewhere as slot/fruit machines) in pubs and clubs across the land wreaking havoc with many people's lives, dealing with problem gamblers is always high on the sensitivity of the Australian public.

W…

Irish 1000 Guineas Preview

It's Classic weekend in the Emerald Isle with Magician leading an Aidan O'Brien 1-2 in the 2000 Guineas today. Three of his fillies will be lining up to make it a clean sweep for the weekend. Casting a close eye over the field is the now regular blog contributor Lara Pocock, @lara_pocock.

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Irish 1000 Guineas

Sunday sees the fillies take centre stage at the Curragh, with the Group One Irish 1000 Guineas over a mile featuring a field of 16 fillies from Britain and Ireland. The race was won by the Mick Channon-trained Samitar last year, with that filly going on to race in the USA. Champion Irish Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won three of the last ten runnings and has three engaged here.

The official going is good to firm, having been watered. The ground is described as on the faster side but perfect for racing.

Big Break (6-1) - Won two of her three juvenile starts, including the Group Three Killavullan Stakes on her final race. She has been off the tra…

Eurovision update for tonight's final

A few years back a betting preview of the final was all that we'd need but it's such a huge event these days with semi-finals and peripheral markets, last weekend's preview from @AndrewNJHawkins needs a freshen up. So he's back with an update for tonight's final. For the plethora of betting markets available, visit Oddschecker.

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Eurovision final update

While Denmark still shapes as the country to beat in this year's Eurovision Song Contest, I'd suggest it isn't as foregone a conclusion as Sweden were last year.

Indeed, with the countries that have qualified this year, it could be one of the most intriguing nights of voting we have seen.

As always, the semi finals have managed to reshape the entire picture around the final.

It's the first time that the five republics which once formed Yugoslavia - Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Slovenia and Macedonia - have all failed to make the final.

If just one of those countries had qualifie…

The Preakness preview

The American Triple Crown moves onto the second stage tomorrow but as mentioned below, it really is a non-entity these days, much like the English Triple Crown. It's a relic of a bygone era. In tomorrow's race at Pimlico, we'll have a short-priced favourite and a bunch of others trying their luck. And we can add another horse to the list of #GiveTheOwnersADictionary for crimes against the English language.

Taking on the preview is regular blog contributor, Jon da Silva, @creamontop.

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The Preakness

Odds quoted best odds on offer on Oddschecker in the UK

I am kind of haunted by certain words and the two racenames I've most had to conjure with are The Cesarewitch and The Preakness at Pimlico. Indeed Pimlico also, I knew of this race before I knew that the film Passport to Pimilico was about a real place in London. I've looked up the origins of Cesarewitch but never Preakness as who wants to be disillusioned by some mundane explanation.

The race itsel…

Doomben Cup preview

The spotlight on Aussie racing is now firmly on Queensland, and tomorrow all the action is at Doomben, with the feature race being the G1 Doomben Cup. Making a return to the blog for this preview is Josh Humbler, the wise man behind the Excelleresport website which also provides trading advice on EPL, La Liga and the PGA Tour. You can also follow him on Twitter, @excelleresport. Welcome back!

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RACE 7: Kirks Doomben Cup, 2000m, Group 1

From a rapidly deteriorating Eagle Farm last week we move to our first week at Doomben. It is unusual scheduling and may lead to unusual patterns at a track that can play to a bias at time. A key point from the main lead up - the Hollindale Stakes - the 3yo Fillies GC Bracelet on the same day ran a second quicker.

#1- Manighar ($9.50): ran an odds-on favourite in this event last year. This is his worst campaign since arriving in Australia and while his trainer wants to strongly push his chances we must look elsewhere.

#2 - Danleigh …

IPL spot-fixing saga

To anyone who watches the IPL regularly, today's news of arrests in the IPL are no surprise. Well actually... the arrests are a surprise, there's absolutely no shock that it was going on. The IPL is the WWE of cricket - huge TV contracts at stake so they need to keep TV ratings high, and plenty of rich folk that are often above the law. There's no way some of the results occurring over the past few weeks are 100% clean. The market knows in advance far too often. Computer pricing models for cricket are far too accurate these days for some of the big anomalies in the market, followed by the money being absolutely spot on.

Anyway, I can't say anything on today's incident any better than professional cricket trader Mark Iverson. View his post here

IP-Smells?

As we approach the end of this years tournament, the IPL, the world’s showpiece T20 competition, has once again been rocked by spot fixing accusations. This won’t come as much of a surprise to many of the regular…

Dante Stakes preview

The eponymous race of this Festival, the Dante Stakes is the main race leading into Epsom in just over a fortnight. The other Derby trials haven't exactly sent hearts racing, let's hope we see something here which justifies the endless hype Derby week thrusts upon the key chances. Having another crack at a preview is aspiring racing writer @owenalsop.

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Dante Stakes

The Dante Stakes at York is the final ‘official’ trial for the Derby, and tomorrow eight more contenders will attempt to lay down a marker for the Epsom show piece.

Since the declarations were released last week, there had been overwhelming support for Sir Michael Stoute’s one time Derby favourite, Telescope, this has all changed however, with the news of the colts sensational scratching from the Dante on Tuesday this Group 2 has been thrown wide open and Telescope’s Derby prospects all but thrown away.

The field for the Dante Stakes is headed in the markets by Aidan O’Brien’s Indian Chief.…

Hambleton Stakes preview

Another new writer for the York Dante Festival, it's welcome aboard to Stephen Keene, @untilnextyear. A black-type handicap race in the UK is quite a rare commodity whereas in Australia, we have plenty of them. None of this save all the chocolates for the bluebloods in five-horse fields malarkey! And like a proper handicap, it ain't gonna be easy to flush out a winner. Over to you Steve....

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Hambleton Stakes

A quick word of warning before I begin – I do tend to have a little more luck with lower grade fare than this sort of race. It is often easier to strike out several horses, while identifying a few well-handicapped sorts at half-decent odds.

However, if that hasn’t put you off this article before it has even began, there is a lot to be said for proper quality racing. There is a good chance the majority of the runners are being run to win, rather than being run for some future goal. There are fewer perplexing plots. And quality races with a bit of h…

Duke of York Stakes preview

More fresh talent taking up the offer to preview a feature race on the blog, this time Owen Alsop, @owenalsop, an aspiring racing writer from the West Country. Enjoy his offering below and he'll be back for more tomorrow.

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Duke of York Stakes

The 2013 renewal of the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes looks, on paper at least, to be one of the most competitive in recent times.

Following the retirement of possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, Black Caviar, there is a void to be filled at the head of the world’s sprinting ranks… could we see a contender for the throne in action at York on Wednesday?

The answer is probably no, we won’t see anything that will ever reach the lofty heights of the wonder mare. However, that is not to say that the field for the Duke of York does not contain a sprinter (or two, or three) capable of lifting British and Irish racing’s sprinting ranks back up to the levels that they once were.

Roger C…

York - Musidora Stakes preview

I've never been to a York festival but the northerners tell me I'm seriously missing out. The Dante festival kicks off on Wednesday and leading off with his shrewd assessment of the top fillies' race is Mark Rowntree, @uptheirons007. Read more of his excellent work on his blog.

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Tattersalls Musidora Stakes Preview – York 15th May 2013

A recognised trial for the Investec Oaks, Wednesday’s Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at York has attracted a compact field of only six runners, despite a healthy prize fund of £75,000. The Ballymacoll Stud owned and Sir Michael Stoute trained Liber Nauticus will undoubtedly head the market. This Oaks, Irish Oaks and Ribblesdale entrant has only been seen once on a race course to date, when making a winning debut in an Maiden Fillies event over eight furlongs at Goodwood in September 2012 on ground described as Good. Despite running green early doors, the filly showed a smart turn of foot inside the final furlong st…

Eurovision preview

It's nearly time for everyone's annual overdose of cheese - the Eurovision Song Contest. This blog is dedicated to quality previews of any betting event, not just horse racing, so Eurovision tragic Andrew Hawkins, @AndrewNJHawkins has mined all the available research channels to produce this genius summary of the contest. It goes without saying that Hawk needs to find a hobby.... #getHawkamissus

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EUROVISION PREVIEW

There is just one week until Europe (and much of the world) is captivated by the quirky competition that is Eurovision, with the first heat next week.

The Eurovision Song Contest remains the original talent show, long before franchises like Pop Idol, The Voice and The X-Factor took over our television screens.

First held in 1956 with the intention of bringing together countries divided by World War II a decade earlier, it has become a launching pad for artists as well as an annual opportunity to laugh at some of the worst musical acts t…