Skip to main content

Remainder of Royal Ascot Tuesday preview

Will restrict the deep dive to one race a day, quick summary of the rest of my day one thoughts...

It won't look anything like this in 2020!

Buckingham Palace
covered in detail here

Queen Anne
Could this be as simple as Circus Maximus or bust? Came back from the Derby last year to the mile to win the St James' Palace last year, ran second to Too Darn Hot in the Sussex and won the G1 Prix de Moulin in September. Think he has a bit on these at his best, but without a lead-up run, there's always that doubt. Accidental Agent won this two years ago, then refused to race last year. He's had the snip over the winter and Eve Johnson Houghton is said to be very happy with him. Mohaather is very lightly raced and highly regarded, while the two mares at the bottom, Billesdon Brook and Terebellum, will be competitive.

Frankly Darling was mighty impressive winning at Newcastle and is the pick of the Gosden trio. Plenty more to come from her with only two starts under her belt. Miss Yoda did plenty wrong at Lingfield and still won, while Trefoil finished third behind another Gosden filly Run Wild at Newmarket recently. You'd assume she'd need to improve to beat the favourite but the extra ground will be in her favour.

King Edward VII
Mogul should be too good for these but small field, not the prime target for all of them. Trainer said in his ATR Stable Tour that "he'll probably need his first run... he's made more like a miler but we always thought he'd stay a mile and a quarter and hoped he'll stay a mile and a half." Wouldn't be getting too excited about the odds-on. Might be a lay rather than focusing specifically on any rival.

King's Stand
This will be Battash or bust. He's a flying machine but has too many things which can go wrong with him. The lack of crowds must aid his cause but at odds-on, nahhh. Always been a fan of Liberty Beach, ran fourth in the Queen Mary last year, winning her group down the wrong side of the track, and won first-up in a Listed race at Haydock. Will come on for that run, looked too fresh. 

Duke of Cambridge 
John Gosden declared Nazeef his best chance of the week so that's just about enough to put her in as a moral however... Wasmya was unlucky last time against the very handy French filly Spinning Memories, and trainer Francis-Henri Graffard won the G1 Coronation Stakes here last year.

Ascot Stakes
Zero interest in a jumpers' flat race.



Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...