Skip to main content

Royal Ascot Day Two summary preview

Notes from day one - the grandstand rail is perceived to have the advantage, watch for horses on that side to bet overbet in places. Expect draw results to spread out tomorrow. A tough day, more handicaps, just the single G1 and clear favourites I'm not that excited about.

Day 1 ledger - in profit from Poetic Flare but didn't go close with anything else.




1430 - Queen Mary Stakes


1505 - Queen's Vase

Intriguing race regularly won by Aidan O'Brien, Mark Johnston or Sir Michael Stoute, although the race was shortened to 1m6f after a 33/1 shot Sword Fighter took the prize in 2016. Every winner bar that one since 2002 has been 7/1 or shorter, with favs winning 8/18.

Wordsworth is a brother to Kew Gardens who won this three years ago and will set a high standard, but two other colts caught my eye. Stowell was the horse which earned Rab Havlin a lengthy ban for trying not to beat the stable favourite in that race at Lingfield, and then followed up with a win here just over a month ago. Ruling has been racing against The Mediterranean, who went for the King Edward VII Stakes instead, and should enjoy the step up in trip. Interesting to note that Joseph O'Brien is yet to land his first winner at Royal Ascot.

RULING, Wordsworth, Stowell

1540 - Duke of Cambridge Stakes

This race revolves around Lady Bowthorpe, who ran 1.5L second to Palace Pier in the Lockinge, after winning the G2 Dahlia at Newmarket a fortnight earlier. They've been the best two runs of her career, and taken at face value, she has every right to continue at that level. Last season however, she won twice from six starts, claiming a C4 handicap and a G3 mile here on the round track. She's very good but she has only ever started 2/1 on one other occasion, winning for the first time at Lingfield - I just have to oppose her on price.

Double or Bubble looked like she could be anything winning a C2 handicap by nearly 4L at Newmarket when resuming this season, at just her fourth start. This is a steep rise in class but outside the favourite (at her best), the others aren't stars. She wants firm ground (twice scratched on soft), Exceed and Excel's love the straight and going up to a mile should only be a positive. Queen Power pushed Lady Bowthorpe to a head at Newmarket (Lavender's Blue a neck further back), and will run her usual honest race.

DOUBLE OR BUBBLE, Queen Power, Lady Bowthorpe

1620 - Prince of Wales's Stakes

A great three-way battle here between last year's victor Lord North and the two-pronged Coolmore attack from Armory, second in the Cox Plate, and last year's champion filly Love. A tremendous race to sit back and watch. For the sake of being a contrarian, I'll take Armory to step up and make this very interesting. 

ARMORY, Love, Lord North (NR)

1700 - Royal Hunt Cup

Typical wide open Hunt Cup with cases to be made for just about the lot as well as reasons to oppose. Just the one favourite has won in the last 19 editions, with winners often in the 20-28/1 bracket. Will take one on each side - Beat Le Bon and Brunch, keeping an eye on any market moves on the day.

BEAT LE BON, Brunch, Layfayette, Ouzo, Bugle Major

1735 - Windsor Castle Stakes

Ruthin looks like a machine and might just blow them away. Has Frankie aboard, five furlongs, a weaker target and the same ownership as Campanelle who won the Queen May last season. Tipperary Sunset goes quickly and finds under pressure, a great asset in a big field. Dig Two has speed to burn while Guilded ran well in the Hilary Needler last time out and Nick Bradley Racing had a 50/1 shot run second on opening day.

RUTHIN, Tipperary Sunset (NR), Guilded, Dig Two

1810 - Kensington Palace Stakes

Dalanijujo won first-up at Yarmouth recently after running well without winning in some decent filles' handicaps last summer. Down in the weights I think she has a good chance at odds here. Declared Interest won easily at Leicester a fortnight ago, and looks the type ready to take on stronger opposition. Last time here in September, she ran third to Dream Loper beaten 2.5L. She receives an extra 5lb from that rival today. Dream Loper and Lights On rate as solid chances higher up in the weights.

DALANIJUJO, Declared Interest, Lights On. 

 

BETS
Eve Lodge 1pt EW 12/1 NR
Ruling 0.5pt EW 10/1
Double or Bubble 2pts EW 9/1 (price long gone, suggest Win only at 5/1, and no shorter)
Dalanijujo 0.5EW 20/1
maybe Ruthin depending on price

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

hope for investors in the Centaur scandal?

In a breaking story, it has been reported that directors of the failed sports investment fund Centaur have had their assets frozen in order to repay investors. It is believed that managing director Keith Sobey skipped town trying to avoid prosecution however he either naively thought Ireland was a safe enough place to hide or had a lingering feeling of guilt and sat waiting for that knock on the door. Sobey, the name behind Centaur ( read the original story here ), is believed to own four houses, worth more in total than the missing £1.6m. His willingness to sell them to repay investors is likely to keep the matter out of the courts, and at least one other director, Andrew Cork, will apparently follow suit. All this adds weight to anecdotal evidence that the collapse of the fund came down to mismanagement rather than fraudulent deeds. As costs grew (why would you set up a training academy in central London?), margins evaporated and keeping the business afloat went through money like