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Showing posts from September, 2012

NRL Grand Final preview

To finish off the weekend and complete the winter season for Australian sport, it's Grand Final Day for the National Rugby League (NRL). Since none of my readers from Sydney volunteered, British rugby league die-hard James Jack, @materialista27, has answered the call for a preview.

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NRL GRAND FINAL

This season's Grand Final pits 1st versus 2nd from the table after the weekly rounds as minor premiers Canterbury Bulldogs take on Melbourne Storm.

THE BACKGROUND

The Doggies last won the title in 2004 after defeating the Roosters. Last year's grand final winning coach Des Hasler joined from Manly, they look to have been galvanised and they come into this game having won 15 of their last 16. They knocked off Manly in week 1 of the finals and thumped Souths last week to set up this encounter. Their only defeat since May came in Canberra, losing 34-6 to the Raiders. That game aside, the have been consistent all season and as a result swept this year's Dally…

Cambridgeshire preview - Trends Analysis

One of the toughest things I find about adjusting to UK racing is the willingness to hold huge field handicaps. The way I like to do my form, it would take a day just to go through the field! Thankfully, some folk revel in this type of race, arise @Sir_Back2Lay with his trends analysis

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The Cambridgeshire

With 35 runners this is no easy task but the trends are extremely useful to narrow down the field in the Cambridgeshire. If we go through the main trends, keeping it strict, there is a great deal of value around.

∙ Aged 6 or younger
∙ Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
∙ Officially rated 91 to 102
∙ Has run 4 to 7 times in 2012
∙ Finished in the first 4 in a class 2 handicap last time
∙ Posted highest RPR of past 12 months on last start
∙ Has won at class 2 level or above (at worst placed in a class 2)
∙ Won over 1M 2F
∙ Won a race with 14+ runners
∙ Ran in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
∙ …

Ryder Cup preview

A bit slow off the mark with this, but we're not expecting prices to change too much on Day 1 anyway, so no harm being patient. Assessing the Ryder Cup for the blog are the experts at Priomha, @priomha, the Australia-based sports trading fund - regulated, transparent and profitable.

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RYDER CUP PREVIEW

One of the great fallacies of the sporting world is that the Ryder Cup is a "team" event. It is a team event in terms of who wins and loses (overall) and that you get to share beers with more than just your caddy, but in terms of execution of rounds it boils down to the individual and it is upon this premise that we have based our analysis and investments.

The foursomes (alternate shot) is the only format that has some dependence on your colleague - even this is a tenuous call at the elite level as it is not as if the pairings have a 16 handicapper and a scratch player where every second shot is from the rough. Worse case scenario is that the longer h…

get in the mood for the footy!

This is the anthem of Aussie Rules football, and by crikey, I wouldn't say no to it becoming the national anthem! Even if you don't like the music, the highlights are worth watching on their own....



and after that, we have the song composed many years ago for the final series

Australia v India - T20 World Cup preview

Squeezed amongst all the racing, golf and various codes of footy this weekend is the T20 Cricket World Cup in Sri Lanka. With the minnows seen off, now we get into the Super Eights section, a bit of pfaff before the knockout stages finally commence. Sharing his preview of the match is Stephen Maher - @gamblerfalls

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Australia v India

We have an exciting clash between Australia and India in Colombo today at 3PM British time. Looking at the pitch while Pakistan and South Africa are playing at the moment, it looks like 160+ would be a great score possibly match winning, 150-140 competitive and spin should play a big part. The match odds is a difficult one with India 4/5 and Australia 11/10, I’d say whoever bats first is at a massive advantage, if they dont aim too high which is highly possible considering the scores so far in the tournament. The pitch will no doubt help Indias bowling, and Australia will really need a good start from Warner and Watson so they can see off the …

Nayef Joel Stakes - Newmarket Friday

Friday's feature at Newmarket is the Nayef Joel Stakes over a mile, and returning to the blog with his excellent analysis is Gary Savage, @chesneywold.

Nayef Joel Stakes

Quite how the Joel Stakes at Newmarket has made it onto the roster of the British Champions Series is mystifying, but nevertheless it’s a competitive renewal and with the ground at HQ looking decent it’s well worth taking a look at the field.

Fanunalter is trained by Michael Wigham, who is more known for his ‘exploits’ at lesser tracks than training Group Two winners. Having said that, this ex-Marco Botti inmate ran straight and true on his only run so far for his new trainer when picking up the Summer Mile at Ascot at 33-1. With a strike rate of five wins from fifteen starts he must have a chance of following up in this only marginally better contest.

Most Improved has the single best piece of form in this race having taken the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s the likely favourite here, and is no …

2012 AFL Grand Final Preview

There is just one day in September worth knowing about, and that is AFL Grand Final Day. Saturday's the day - 1430 AEST, or on this side of the world, a rather early start at 0530. For a proper taste of the atmosphere, get to your nearest Aussie pub - it will be going off like a frog in a sock....

I have been provided with a seriously good preview of the 2012 AFL grand final by Reading the Play who provide AFL, NFL and NRL previews and betting advice. Dr Matt is their AFL & NFL guru and has excelled this year wih a 95-63 60% SR on AFL games. With a maths/science background and an economics degree, Dr Matt combines in-depth statistical analysis with a very astute dissection of betting markets. Follow him on Twitter, @downisthenewup_ and read his AFL and NFL material at Reading the Play

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2012 AFL Grand Final Preview
Hawthorn v Sydney

HAWTHORN 2012 ATS DATA SYDNEY
17 - 7 ATS TOTAL 16 - 8
15 - 7 ATS FAVE 12 - 4
1 - 0 ATS DOG 4 - 3
9 - 6 ATS MCG 0 - 1
8 - 5 AT…

Friday at Newmarket

Three days of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket keep us going as the Flat season slowly winds to a close in the UK. Jack Milner, @jjmsports, take a quick look at Friday's card...

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NEWMARKET Friday

The Oh So Sharp Stakes kicks off Newmarket’s Fillies Mile Day on Friday, on a card where the females are in the spotlight and with some prospective classic fillies for next year. Godolphin have a firm grip on many of the races, including the favourite in the Fillies mile, and they also have POWER OF LIGHT, an impressive maiden winner on debut, absolutely bolting up two weeks ago at Newcastle, winning by seven lengths. Exceptionally bred, there are questions surrounding all of her rivals, and with Mikael Barzalona in the plate on The Rowley Mile, and she looks to be a filly going places. She could turn out to be a prospective 1000 Guineas horse in the making.

The 1.45 Listed contest is the most competitive race on the card, with a host of improving fillies competing…

Dodgy IV Drips, Mafia Break-Ins & Match-Fixing

What a surprise, Italian football has been accused of systematic performance-enhancing drug-taking, mafia involvement and match-fixing. Nothing new there to be honest, but the details and the name it came from certainly add weight to the years of outcry. In a huge shock (sarcasm), all these revelations comes out with the release of a book....

From the excellent WhoAteAllThePies site, here's a taste of the article...

Dodgy IV Drips, Mafia Break-Ins & Match-Fixing

Former Argentina international Matias Almeyda has written an autobiography which is currently being serialised in Gazzetta dello Sport, in which the midfielder – who is currently head coach at River Plate – makes some fairly scandalous claims about the state of the inner machinations of Italian football, including intravenous doping, pandemic match-fixing and mafia intimidation.

Almeyda spent eight years in Italy, wherein he turned out for Lazio, Parma, Brescia and Inter Milan.

In the interest of laziness on our part…

Norm Smith Medal preview

It's the biggest weekend in Aussie sport this weekend with the AFL Grand Final being played on Saturday and the NRL Grand Final on Sunday. With big events comes a plethora of betting markets to keep the public interested all the way through and the betting volumes going through the roof. Drafted in for his look at the Norm Smith Medal, which for those of you who don't follow the greatest sport on the planet, is the prize awarded to the player deemed to be the best and fairest in the AFL Grand Final, is Michael Courts, @mtcourts. Not sure what he does for a living to be honest, but he can certainly write very well!

For folks in the UK timezone, the match will be screened on ESPN, coverage commencing at 0430 with first bounce around 0530. Don't be too concerned if you miss some of the traditionally dreadful pre-game entertainment by setting the alarm clock a bit later...

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The Norm Smith Medal

Punting is Australia’s national pastime, and there’s nothing Aust…

Ayr Gold Cup preview

If the rain has stopped in Scotland, then it will be Ayr Gold (and Silver and Bronze) Cup day in a traditionally very difficult sprint handicap. Taking the reins for the preview is @Sir_Back2Lay

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The Ayr Gold Cup is Europe’s richest sprint handicap held in September and consists of 27 runners. This year’s renewal is most likely to be run over very soft conditions so we are really looking for horses that have proven form on soft ground or are very much bred to handle such conditions. With 26 runners ready to line up it really is a fun puzzle to try and solve. But as always I will start by going through the main trends from the past 10 runnings.

· Aged 4 to 6
· Carrying 9-0 to 9-6
· Officially rated 97 to 105
· Has run at least 4 times this season
· Won no more than once in 2012 (ideally no wins this year)
· Ran in a class 3 or better in past 35 days
· Ran over 8 days ago and not carrying a penalty:-
· …

Australian racing preview from Dominic Beirne

Group 1 racing time in Melbourne and Sydney this weekend, and it's hard to do better than the man acclaimed by many as the best judge in Australia, Dominic Beirne. Courtesy of Betfair Australia, here is his look at the big races of the weekend.



William Hill to take over Sportingbet?

Been a while since I've written anything on industry developments, and was reminded of that on the weekend - so expect an industry update soon, but this was worthy of a post on its own.

UK betting giant William Hill is reported to being seriously considering taking over internet betting rival Sportingbet. The online specialists have long been seen as a potential acquisition target and haven't done much to scare rivals off. Hills aren't the only potential suitors though, they have a potential co-bidder in GVC.

William Hill considers joint takeover of Sportingbet

William Hill is considering a joint takeover of online rival Sportingbet that would see it cherry pick the Guernsey-based firm's lucrative Australian operations and possibly its business in Spain.

Sportingbet, shirt sponsors of Wolverhampton Wanderers football club, had last year been in lengthy takeover discussions with William Hill's closest competitor Ladbrokes. A deal could not be thrashed out, however…

World T20 preview

The World T20 tournament starts today in Sri Lanka and the very shrewd Stephen Maher has let me pinch his preview for the blog. You can follow Stephen's journey as a professional punter/trader via his blog GamblerFalls or on Twitter, @gamblerfalls.

You don't last in this game as a pro without being very astute, and I can assure you, this guy is. Unusual that he's a big cricket trader being from Ireland, but that probably removes a lot of potential bias. This preview was posted on his blog last week, so some of the prices may have moved.

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Well, it's finally here and hopefully its a cracker. A lot of people are expecting turning pitches for the competition but I dont really agree with that view, you tend to get a lot of good pitches in Sri Lanka.

I’ll go by betting order with a small few thoughts on each team before looking at the side markets.

INDIA

9/2 best price with bookies, currently 5.7 on Betfair. Obviously we all know how good their superstar …

NFL Week 2 - Redskins at the Rams

Part of the service at NFL Insight, is match previews on matches televised in the UK. They also have a live trading room (subscription) where three expert traders give advice on live trading selected matches. Well worth a look and a great site created by Andy Richmond @bickley14, Matt Finnigan @mattfinnigan and Andrew Brocker @andrewbexpert.

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WEEK 2 – NFL PREVIEW - Redskins @ Rams

RG3 and the spectacular debut were one of the main narratives of the week in the NFL and that has given the Washington Redskins a very early dose of optimism and enthusiasm but let’s not get carried away as there are still plenty of areas where they need to improve and turn around the franchise. The ‘Skins are on the road again on Sunday against the Rams who are looking to rebound from an opening day defeat in Detroit which must have been a bitter pill to swallow as they came so close to victory.

Robert Griffin III to give him his full name became the first rookie quarterback to be named an NFL play…