The Melbourne Cup 2025 - the Visitors

A preview in four parts - PART I

It's the big race on Tuesday, my Christmas Day, and the race which stops the sane part of the nation in Australia. Doing a proper job of the preview can't be just left to one rushed post on the weekend, so this year I've pulled my finger out expanded the coverage to provide greater detail.

At the time of publishing, the field isn't finalised but we have a good idea of almost all the runners. What we don't have is any certainty on the weather which right now could be ugly and it could just blow over.

I'll break up the preview into three runner-by-runner sections:

The Visitors
The Expats
The Locals

followed by a summary once the barriers are finalised and we have a clearer picture from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Al Riffa, 59kg

5yo H Wootton Bassett - Love On My Mind

15:5-5-1, $2,133,420

Track - none, Distance - none, but 2/2 over 2800m 

T: Joseph O'Brien J: Mark Zahra

Biggest Result - won 2025 G1 Irish St Leger 

The class runner of the field, a three-time Group 1 winner (at ages two, four and five), second in the Eclipse, second in the Hardwicke Stakes - he's earned top weight here. While many will get in a tizz about too much weight in our biggest race, it's not that long ago since the #1 saddlecloth won, Gold Trip in 2022 (also with Mark Zahra aboard and owned by Australian Bloodstock). When a horse has the class, they can do it. Only twice in his career has he carried under 58kg, both times outside Europe, he's used to carrying 59-60kg. WFA Group 1 racing though is much different to a capacity-field handicap. The only time he has run in a field bigger than twelve runners was in last year's Arc, where he finished 11th, beaten 11 lengths. 

All class, right in this. 

Chevalier Rose, 55.5kg

7yo H Deep Impact - Viane Rose

35:5-5-2, $3,131,173

Track - none, Distance - 1:0-0-0, but has won over 3600m

T: Hisashi Shimizu J: Damian Lane

Biggest Result - won 2024 G2 Kyoto Daishoten

The mystery Japanese runner who is tricky to line up. This time last year, he won two G2 races in a row - the Kyoto Daishoten over 2400m followed by the Stayers Stakes over 3600m. In four runs this year, he's been pushed into stronger races including the Tenno Sho Spring and the Takazrazuka Kinen, starting at big odds each time. His form last year appears much stronger but the depth at the top level in Japan is very strong. His stablemate Redentor (ridden by Damian Lane) won the Tenno Sho Spring, Byzantine Dream was a narrow second and then came to Europe winning the G2 Prix Foy and running fifth in the G1 Arc. Chevalier Rose finished two positions and eight lengths ahead of Warp Speed, who only missed by a nose in the Cup last year. His last two runs haven't lit up the clock but they have persevered with an expensive project to get him here. Connections have brought Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and Caulfield Cup winner Mer de Glace to Melbourne previously, this horse must be respected. 

Presage Nocturne, 55.5kg

5yo H Wootton Bassett - Kyurem

16:4-5-3, $782,192

Track - none, Distance - none, but has won twice over 3000m

T: Alessandro Botti J: Stephane Pasquier

Biggest Result - Won 2025 G3 Prix de Barbeville

A striking grey horse whom most had dismissed as too slow for the Caulfield Cup, then ran an excellent fourth, beaten under two lengths. He's a classy stayer, running in Group races all year, beginning with a fourth to Japanese star Byzantine Dream in Riyadh (G1, £1.2m, 3000m), followed by a G3 win and a G1 third at Longchamp,  then a narrow third in the G2 Prix Kergolay at Deauville, in a very slowly-run race where he couldn't quite catch the leader.  The French form was largely against the same horses so it was a little hard to line up outside that group but the fourths in Saudi Arabia plus the Caulfield Cup shows there'll be no 60/1 around this time. He is a classy horse and should be right in the mix here. Watch for him to be unders on the tote with the grey horse money but don't let that sway his chances.

Meydaan, 54kg

4yo G Frankel - Nezwaah

14:2-2-2, $350,072

Track - none Distance - none, but ran fourth in the Queen's Vase over 2800m

T: Simon & Ed Crisford J: James McDonald

Biggest Result - won 2024 Listed Cocked Hat,

Hype machine who was disappointing at Caulfield finishing ninth. Was on the wrong leg around the home turn and worked home fairly well late, but missed his chance. Regular rider Andrea Atzeni has been binned off and replaced by local star and  possibly the best jockey in the world, James McDonald. By Frankel out of a G1-winning Dubawi mare, there is so much hype around this horse. Two wins from 14 is a poor return on that and he is always up there in the betting. In the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot last year, he looked a big chance at the top of the straight then was gone with 200m to go, dropping out to a 6.3L fourth. He's not been back to that sort of distance again, mostly sticking to 2000-2400m this season without success (two seconds, one third). He ran through the line at Caulfield but if forced to do some work over the two miles I have my doubts about him being strong in the finish. The trainer has brought good ones here before, so they've got a strong benchmark to work with. JMac is glowing about his trackwork reports, I just have concerns over his win strike rate for such a hyped horse.

Absurde, 53.5kg

7yo G Fastnet Rock - Incroyable

28:7-7-5, $1,570,305

Track: 2:0-0-0 Dist: 2:0-0-0 (Flat runs only), 7th 2023, 5th 2024

T: Willie Mullins J: Kerrin McEvoy

Biggest Result - 5th in 2024 Melb Cup

Another one going for third time lucky, but one you sense with a genuine chance. In 2023 he looked primed to win at the top of the straight, only to fade on his run late, and then last year he was back on the rail, took the inside runs (with winner Knight's Choice on his immediate outside much of the way) and was blocked a couple of times by tiring horses. With an ounce of luck, he's in the photo if not taking the win. This year, the table have tried something different, having a lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup, where he ran a close-up seventh after drawing the 'coffin box' in gate one. He is capable of a big race yet again, he'd happily take a wider draw rather than being locked away and hoping for luck. He's won an Ebor, he's won a County Hurdle at Cheltenham (the best handicap hurdle of the year), he has the smarts for big races. Kerrin McEvoy rode him last year and will relish another chance at the Cup on a genuine contender.

Flatten The Curve, 53.5kg

6yo G Zarak - Lailoma 

41: 8-9-4, $952,074

Track - none, Distance - 5:2-1-0

T: Henk Grewe J: Thore Hammer Hansen

Biggest Result - won 2025 Bowling Green Gold Cup Invitational,

Has been a handicapper his whole career until the past 12 months after the owner moved him from a small French trainer to one of the leading stables in Germany. He hasn't looked back since then, winning five of six starts, but naturally the form is troublesome to line up with most German horses being unknown to the outside world. One horse left in his wake (5L behind) in the G2 Oleander-Rennen in May was Lordano, who ran third to multiple G1 winner Rebel's Romance, beaten 3L at level weights in the G1 Preis von Europa the previous September. His French form, often on the all-weather in winter, doesn't seem that exciting, but he did finish just over a length behind Presage Nocturne at Compiegne in June 2024. His only poor run since switching to Grewe was went they went to Saratoga for the Belmont Gold Cup, and then the race was switched to the dirt after a lot of rain. No point scratching when you've come that far but he did get beaten 24L. Forget that one. His last run was at Kentucky Downs, the only all-turf track in the States, where he won the Bowling Green Gold Cup Invitational by an easy 5.5L (the second horse runs in the BC Turf on Sat night). The only valid formline out of that race was via Limited Liability, who ran third in the Belmont Gold Cup last year (on turf), then belted the horse who beat him (The Grey Wizard) at Kentucky Downs in the Nashville Gold Cup. So for a 50/1 shot, his form is more than reasonable. Listen to how well he has settled in at Werribee.

Onesmoothoperator, 53kg

7yo G Dialed In - Sueno D'Oro

46:6-11-6, $1,422,317

Track - ran 12th last year without much luck, Dist - 8:1-2-1 at 3200m+

T: Brian Ellison J: Harry Coffey

Biggest Result - won 2025 MV Gold Cup,

A Yorkshire horse who simply loves it in Australia - he's raced three times here and won twice (Geelong Cup last year, MV Gold Cup last week). The other time was last year's race which is worth another look. He started 6/1 and dropped towards the rear of the field after settling. Approaching the home turn he was still a long way back but no more than a length off the winner, Knight's Choice, plus Absurde. The difference was their passage from there on. The winner was able to steer through the pack without losing momentum, Absurde went for the rails run which worked perfectly until the last 150m and Onesmoothoperator didn't get much space at all. He was crunched between two runners as they fanned out on the bend, and held blocked in by the same two horses. He worked home nicely over the final 200m once in the clear, but the persuader was never pulled as his chance was gone. That's his running style, he needs luck. That is much easier to achieve in a 12-horse race than 24. You don't want to be taking single digit odds in those circumstances - maybe at 15s.

Parchment Party, 52kg

5yo H Constitution - Life Well Lived

11:4-1-1, $642,290

Track - none, Distance - none, but 2/2 over 2800m 

T: William Mott J: John Velazquez

Biggest Result - won G1 Belmont Gold Cup,

American horse who runs on dirt. Ignore what the Australian formguide says about him winning on a heavy track - there's no such thing in the US, they always switch off the turf at the first drop of rain, and race on the dirt. He has run twice on turf earlier this year, both times well beaten after dropping out to last and trying to run on. He'll have a better chance of doing that successfully here as US tracks are as tight as Moonee Valley, but pressure and a capacity field isn't something he will have witnessed before. Has won his last two starts, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup and Listed Birdstone Stakes over ~2800m. Looks like he'll stay all day so I reckon he can cover his expenses but getting into the finish would be an incredible achievement from trainer Bill Mott. Jockey Johnny Velazquez (Johnny V) is one of the best in the business, winning three Kentucky Derbys and 21 Breeders' Cup races, plus he has won at Royal Ascot before. Gets in pretty light but connections obviously aren't hopeful - neither the owners or the trainer have bothered to make the trip.

Furthur, 52kg

3yo C Waldgeist - Danamight

8:2-2-0, $952,074

Track - none, Distance - none, has won over 2700m

T: Andrew Balding J: Michael Dee

Biggest Result - won 2025 Geoffrey Freer Stakes 

Very interesting young horse who has been purchased by a local syndicate for this race. After running second in the Queen's Vase (G2, 2800m) at Royal Ascot, ahead of future St Leger winner Scandinavia, he seemingly hadn't recovered in time for the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket where he ran last, 25L behind that horse. He then went to Newbury a month later for the G3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, beating older horses, including Epic Poet, who had run second to Byzantine Dream in Riyadh in January (could have almost won with better luck), almost 4L ahead of Presage Nocturne, and later in the season, second to Rebel's Romance in the Yorkshire Cup. So that formline is suddenly very strong. Likes to sit forward and keep on going but has won from off the pace, at least in a smaller field, not a 24-runner handicap. Looks a nice type for the race, good chance.