The Melbourne Cup 2025 - the Expats

A preview in four parts - PART II

THE EXPATS

Buckaroo, 57kg
6yo G Fastnet Rock - Roheryn
30:5-6-5, $3,446,148
Track - 3:0-1-0 Distance - ninth in last year's Cup
T: Chris Waller J: Craig Williams
Biggest Result - ran second in last weekend's Cox Plate, beaten a nose by Via Sistina.

Ran a gallant ninth in last year's race after drawing 20 and coming widest on the turn. His run petered out in the last 200m but was probably entitled to, covering the extra ground. Arrives here in great form, getting within a nose of Via Sistina in the Cox Plate, albeit with not the same performance figure as last year's dominant win, but enough to the whole crowd gasp when he got so close. His spring has been classy - third in the Memsie, second in the Underwood, third in the Might & Power and the narrow miss last weekend - all in Group 1s. In comparison to last spring, he'd had a couple of lead up runs in Sydney (won the G2 Chelmsford), then won the Underwood, ran second to Via Sistina in the Turnbull, ran second in the Caulfield Cup and then ran favourite in the Cup. This time he carries 2.5kg more, one kilo of which is down to the limit weight being raised. He is super honest but doesn't win that often for a horse who has earned that handicap rating. He can win this, but I wouldn't want to see him having to work too hard in running, that last 200m will test him.

Arapaho, 56.5kg
8yo G Lope de Vega - Alzubra
49: 10-6-4, $4,141,650
Track - 2:0-0-0 Distance - 3:1-0-0
T: Bjorn Baker J: Rachel King
Biggest Result - won 2025 Sydney Cup,

Ran in the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday, carried 61kg, worked home late but still beaten 6L in a considerably weaker field. Beaten almost 10L in the Metropolitan in the run before that. Carries a very good horse's weight in 56.5kg, but he's just not a very good horse - not at this level anyway. I'd love to own a $4m winner, wouldn't we all, but not here. Ran 11th in the 2022 Cup,   ran fourth in the 2023 Sydney Cup, and then won that same race last April. Carries marginally more weight here than that day, when he had an absolutely charmed run against a much weaker field. Nope.

Vauban, 56.5kg
7yo G Galiway - Waldfest
28:9-5-4, $2,017,243
Track- 2:0-0-0 Distance 3:1-0-0 (Flat only)
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Blake Shinn
Biggest Result - won 2024 Lonsdale Cup at York,

Here we go again, could it be third time lucky? This horse has been so incredibly hyped in his two previous Cup runs, now he's running as an Irish expat having spent a year in Sydney with Gai Waterhouse. His problem has been getting too excited at Flemington. He'd been to the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot, but nothing compares to Flemington on Cup Day. Gai & Adrian have been working hard to take the nervous energy out of him, seven starts this year and only 17 days between the two Cups, whereas in Ireland, he'd always been at least a month apart. He won first-up for his new stable in March in the G3 Sky High (ahead of Arapaho) followed by a third in the Tancred, but has regressed a little since. Being beaten by Via Sistina in the Queen Elizabeth is nothing to be ashamed of, but in the spring, he's been good without being brilliant. A first up third in the Chelmsford is a strong formline (Lindermann and Sir Delius have won several races since), but then he ran sixth in the G3 Kingston Town as 5/4 fav, and a mildly unlucky fifth in the G1 Metropolitan, conceding 8kg to the winner Royal Supremacy. In the Caulfield Cup, he started at 15/2 (8.50) and was rated a prime contender. But he simply didn't get around the bend at Caulfield, which is not uncommon for first-time visitors. He drops 2kg here and knows this track (14th 2023, 11th 2024). He has started in single digits in the last two Cups, he won't be anywhere near that this time. You can make excuses for him, but I think they are just that - excuses. I think that boat has sailed for him.

Middle Earth, 54.5kg
5yo G Roaring Lion - Roheryn
17: 5-2-2, $706,040
Track - 3:1-0-0 Distance - no starts
T: Ciaron Maher J: Ethan Brown
Biggest Result - won 2024 Aston Park Stakes

This half-brother to Buckaroo has promised a lot since he arrived in Australia but not delivered a great deal. He showed a lot of promise in the UK and would have cost a pretty penny to bring down here. After missing last year's spring carnival, he debuted in the Australian Cup Prelude and won narrowly, before running fifth to Light Infantry Man in the actual Australian Cup - a race which sounds far better than it actually is. This campaign he's been nothing but disappointing. Fifth, 10th, ninth, 11th and finally third last weekend in a very ordinary JRA Cup at The Valley. Now we'd been warned to 'watch out for him over 2400m and further' and he got those conditions in the Caulfield Cup, drawing barrier three. And he ran a mediocre 11th, beaten six and a quarter lengths. He backed up quickly in the JRA Cup, back to 2000m, but had every possible chance in the run. You could make an argument that he wants bigger, flatter tracks but I couldn't back him with stolen money.

Land Legend, 53.5kg
5yo G Galileo - Landikusic
23:3-2-2, $1,349,882
Track - 2:0-0-0, Distance 1:0-0-0, ran 8th in last year's Cup
T: Chris Waller J: Joao Moreira
Biggest Result - won 2024 G1 Metropolitan

Was in great form last spring, winning the Metrop, running third in the Caulfield Cup and then eighth in the Cup, after being on-pace throughout with Zac Purton struggling to hold him. He momentarily took the lead at the top of the straight and then found nothing but wasn't pushed hard to the line. In fact looking again, he probably could have finished a couple of positions closer had Zac ridden him out. Still, I'm sure Mr Ho isn't short of a quid. Since busting a gut in the Cup last season, he has been dismal. 7th of 8, 6th of 6, 8th of 11, 3rd of 12 (first-up on heavy track), 9th of 12, 5th of 11(Underwood), 14th of 14 (Turnbull) and last of 18 in the Caulfield Cup. Here's an idea - last season he ran great races in the Cups by being in the first four on settling. So why keep settling him last this campaign? Completely out of form, even Joao Moreira doesn't possess THAT much magic.

More Felons, 53kg
6yo G Churchill - Pivotalia
21: 5-3-0, $807,746
Track: 1:0-0-0 Distance 1:0-0-0 (Flat runs only, ran 12th in 2023 Cup)
T: Chris Waller J: Tommy Berry
Biggest Result: 2nd in 2024 Tancred Stakes,

Coming back for a second shot at the Cup, two years after the last attempt. In 2023, he arrived on a one-way ticket, ran fifth in the Geelong Cup (behind the 10yo Amade) and then ran 12th in the Cup, beaten 9L after drawing the car park and going back to last. However he had a dream run through on the rail and looked a chance of winning 300m out - then the petrol gauge said empty and backwards he went. Ran second in the 2024 Tancred Stakes at Randwick, but that just shows how embarrassing that race is as a Group 1 at WFA. An awful edition. Not much has changed since, after a solid run in the Metropolitan, beaten only 1.3L at 100/1, he then went into the St Leger close to favouritism. He loomed up in the straight but paddled in the final 200m, against a far weaker field than he meets here. Based on that, and being sired by a miler, I can't have him in this.. 

Changingoftheguard, 53kg
6yo G, Galileo - Lady Lara
17:4-3-2, $757,850
Track - 1:0-1-0 Distance - has never run over this trip. 5th over 2700m back in UK.
T: Kris Lees J: Tim Clark
Biggest Result: won G2 King Edward V Stakes at Royal Ascot, 2022

An expensive plodder who had some decent form at Royal Ascot three and four years ago, but is just plain slow in Australia. He won the City Tatts Cup at Randwick in September but only by getting a soft lead in a small field. He could only run sixth in an average edition of the Geelong Cup, and while he drops 7kg from that race, he'd need a minute's headstart to be a chance in this. Put the pen through him.

Athabascan, 51.5kg
6yo G Almanzor - Alzubra
39:4-6-4, $1,501,702
Track: 3:0-1-0 Distance 2:0-1-0
T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton J: Declan Bates
Biggest Result: Won G3 ATC St Leger Sep 2024

A good advertisement for why we need international horses each year. No doubt he has been great fun for connections, winning some G3/Listed staying races in Sydney and even running second and fifth in the Cup up there, but he should be triple figures in this race. Finished fourteenth in the Metropolitan and while he ran second in the MV Cup recently, Onesmoothoperator went past him with ease off a tougher run and the rest of them aren't much good. Then again, last year's winner started 90/1...

River Of Stars, 51.5kg
6yo M Sea The Stars - Amazone
21: 4-6-4, $1,543,691
Track 1:0-0-0 Distance 1:0-0-1, ran third in the 2025 Sydney Cup.
T: Chris Waller J: Beau Mertens
Biggest Result: won 2023 G3 Bronte Cup at York,

An underrated mare who is tough as nails. She'll race forward in the pack and just keep on going. Since arriving in Australia, she has run three times over 2400m or further, for a seventh in the Tancred (first-up after six months), a third in the Sydney Cup and most recently second in the Caulfield Cup, beaten just under half a length. Now meets the winner Half Yours 2.5kg better off for that margin. Proven at the trip, trained by the master, should prove very hard to beat.

Valiant King, 51kg
5yo G Roaring Lion - Assembly
17:2-3-3, $922,632
Track: 3:1-0-0 Distance - one start, 13th in last year's Cup
T: Chris Waller J: Jye McNeil
Biggest Result - won the G3 Bart Cummings at Flemington a month ago

A conundrum horse. Two years he arrived chasing the Cups for Joseph O'Brien, running a blinder in the Caulfield Cup as a 3yo but suffered an injury and missed the big one. In 2024, he had no form whatsoever but had qualified for the Cups, running ninth at Caulfield at 70/1 and 13th at Flemington at 90/1. But another year in the sun and he's a different horse, back to the horse who ran second in the King George V at Royal Ascot in 2023. In the autumn he ran third in the G2 Chairman's Quality at Randwick, and was then put away for the spring. Once he arrived in Melbourne this campaign, everything changed. Blinkers were applied for the first time in the G3 Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington, he sat back quietly behind a fast pace and then flew home to win at 60/1. While the leader fell in a heap, he did it comfortably and left the rest in his wake. He followed that up with a solid third in the Caulfield Cup, just a length and a half behind the winner after being last at the 600. While he did take the shorter route, he may have gone close to winning with a clearer run. Now meets Half Yours 1.5kg better and will be far better suited at the trip than him. Right in the mix but will have to weave through traffic in the straight.

Royal Supremacy, 51kg
4yo G Make Believe - Adelasia
14:5-3-2, $1,142,212
Track - no starts Distance - not raced beyond 2615m
T: Ciaron Maher J: Robbie Dolan
Biggest Result - won 2025 G1 Metropolitan,

A new player in Australian staying ranks who, after a couple of lacklustre runs, has turned into a strong stayer in NSW. A close second in the Newcastle Cup behind Soul Of Spain followed by a reversal of that result in the Metropolitan brought him to Melbourne in fine form. Into the Caulfield Cup he went and ran a close-up fifth, after being fractious in the barriers and over-racing early. Pre-race nerves in a big race, stepping up from a crowd of 30,000 up to 100,000 is concerning. On breeding, I'd be a tad concerned on his staying ability but it doesn't seem to have harmed him so far in his career.Gives the singing jockey a chance to win his second Cup in a row.

Sayedaty Sadaty, 51kg
4yo G, Anodin - Bell Su River
19:4-4-5, $746,143
Track - 4:1-0-1 Distance - no starts beyond 2520m
T: Ciaron Maher J:
Biggest Result - 5th 2024 G1 Epsom Derby

An adopted Aussie after being imported last year, his form is quite solid if you can forgive a recent blip in the Bart Cummings. He struggled in his first two runs Down Under but since they figured him out in May, he has been very consistent, albeit in weaker races across the winter - a campaign which probably suits him as it matches how he'd have been trained in England, one long campaign each year, rather than shorter, targeted campaigns in autumn and spring. Since May his form is 2-3-1-1-3-3-12-1. He ran third in the G3 Archer in September, narrowly missing a golden ticket into the Cup, followed by the bad run in the G3 Bart Cummings three weeks later where he was probably pulled out of his comfort zone by the hot pace (jockey also reported his action never felt comfortable). He bounced back to form during the week in winning the Bendigo Cup, finally securing his entry in the big race. 

He had a charmed run behind the leader in at Bendigo and had every chance, but he did win comfortably without really being stretched. Will he stay the 3200m? That's a concern for me - he's likely to be up near the pace, but if it's a genuine test I doubt there'll be much left in the tank at the clocktower. More of a one-bat runner without a change of gears, gets in light but I have my doubts at the trip.

Birdman, 51kg
4yo G Free Eagle - Carol
15:3-3-1, $544,597
Track - no starts Distance - one start, ran 9th in Sydney Cup
T: Chris Waller J: Teo Nugent?
Biggest Result - won 2025 G3 Kingston Town Stakes

A promising stayer who still hasn't reached his peak. He came out for the Cup last year but wasn't ready for it. Now he's well seasoned with 11 Aussie starts, winning only once (G3 Kingston Town in September) but numerous 'decent' runs. After winning the Kingston Town, he drew wide and was given an impossible task in the G1 Metropolitan settling at the back. He worked home well to be only beaten 2.6L without ever looking dangerous. In the Caulfield Cup, he was slow to begin from gate 10, which sent him back and to the rail, praying for luck. He started creeping up the rail from the 600, and only had to steer around one horse. Valiant King and Presage Nocturne both came from behind and gave him windburn. Doesn't appear to have the pace to chase them down but if he had some luck with the draw and jumped well, perhaps he could do some damage sitting forward in the field and keeping on going.

Preview Part I - The Visitors