The Melbourne Cup 2025

The Melbourne Cup 2025 - The Locals

A preview in four parts - PART III

I'll break up the preview into three runner-by-runner sections:

THE LOCALS (by breeding, includes NZ)

14. Half Yours, 53kg (8)
5yo G St Jean - La Gazelle
14:7-3-0, $3,841,840
Track - fourth in Turnbull Stks at only start here, Dist - never run past 2400m where he is 2 from 2.
T: Tony & Calvin McEvoy J:Jamie Melham
Biggest Result - won 2025 Caulfield Cup

The local hope, the Caulfield Cup winner who started a clear favourite there and won without much stress. One would think that automatically makes him favourite for Flemington - but maybe not...

At Caulfield everything went right for him. After drawing gate two, he sat one-off the fence, just beyond midfield, behind a rattling pace set by Adelaide River. He had cover in front and inside & out, expending the minimum amount of energy possible. On the turn, Jamie Melham was able to peel off the back of the horses in front, come seven or eight wide to avoid tired horses in front, and had a clear run to the line. If anything Jamie might have gone a touch early to avoid being blocked in by horses going around her, but it really was the perfect set-up for the horse. He didn't scream two-miler at the end, while he wasn't fully ridden out to the line, I don't see him having much in the tank at the clocktower if he's made to do any work in the run.

12. Smokin' Romans (11)
9yo Ghibellines - Inferno
53:11-9-3, $2,392,265
Track - 12:2-1-0 Distance - 1:0-0-0
T: Ciaron Maher J: Ben Melham
Biggest Recent Result - 1st 20245 Warrnambool Cup

The grandpa of the field will go around at massive odds but he has been here before and ran quite well. That was a seventh behind Gold Trip when he sat up on the pace, battling on OK in the straight when everyone else was out on their feet. Over the years, he's been a grand old horse, winning the G1 Turnbull and G2 Queen Elizabeth at Flemington but these days those results are few and far between. This season he has shown a couple of glimpses, running second to Revelare in a 2000m handicap and then fourth in the Herbert Power, but combine those with an eighth in the MV Gold Cup and he's out of his depth here. But he will sit up front and keep going. Probably finishes 9th-12th.

23. Torranzino, 51kg (18)
6yo G Tarzino - Goldilicious
33:6-7-2, $1,094,090
Track - 3:0-1-1 Distance - no starts
T: Paul Preusker J: Celine Gaudray
Biggest Result - won G3 Geelong Cup two weeks ago

A big improver this year who sneaks as in a decent local hope. Scored the 'golden ticket' by winning the Geelong Cup after a glorious ride from Celine Gaudray. That wasn't his only glimpse of form though, he did run second to Valiant King in the Bart Cummings earlier in the month. But Valiant King meets him 1.5kg better for beating him by nearly 3L in that race, after coming from last. Has settled near the pace in his last two races, I don't see him staying the trip with that running style, and if he drops back like he has in previous campaigns, I doubt he has the pace. Has a great record for the jockey though, 7:3-3-1.

If you want some inspiration, have a look at the gym routine for Celine Gaudray, this is dedication.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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