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Showing posts from October, 2011

Melbourne Cup - pace assessment and tips

Pace assessment:

Americain - gets caught wide midfield or has to drop further back. Sat 3W with cover from 11 last year with moderate pace to first turn. Probably needs them to go harder to enable him to get cover.

Jukebox Jury - will press forward but will he be quick enough to do so? The likes of Mourayan, Older Than Time and Glass Harmonium will come across from wide, taking their time and will press on. If he gets stretched to hold the lead, the 57kg will hurt towards the end. If something crosses him, then puts the brakes on, it will also go against him. Can't see him holding the lead.

Dunaden - Lemaire to ride now, can see him sitting midfield, three wide with cover. Just about perfect.

Drunken Sailor - slightly worse than midfield with plenty of cover. Can track the good horses through, just needs a little luck avoiding tired horses.

Glass Harmonium - can only go forward, assuming he doesn't get too stirred up in the pre-race activity. No need to cross early, can st…

the Melbourne Cup - the preview

The Melbourne Cup, the race that stops the nation. Here's my runner-by-runner look at the field.

For a formguide, look here

UPDATED for Lost In The Moment, At First Sight and direct link to the Ebor.

Americain - looking at least as good as last year when he won the race. 3.5kg more to carry, but is this a weaker or stronger race? I rate it slightly weaker, so he's right in this up to his ears. Won the Moonee Valley Cup in a canter, against the strong formalise of Tullamore. The record of topweights in this race though is terrible in recent times - the last five have been unplaced, and the only one to win in the last 30yrs was the supermare Makybe Diva. When you restrict it to foreign horses who were topweight, of the 14 who have tried since 1993 when Vintage Crop started the travelling trend, just one horse - Vinnie Roe, has been placed (2004) - although importantly, I don't think any of those visitors had a lead-up run as Americain has this year. Last race link, Moonee V…

greatest raceday in the world

I'll qualify that statement by adding the word 'domestic' to it - meetings like Arc Day, the new British Champions Day, Hong Kong International Day etc are all set up to welcome the best in the world. Victoria Derby Day at Flemington isn't programmed for that, but a few will arrive anyway with the vast riches available.

UK punters will be amazed to learn that fields and barriers for Saturday's racing is available already, as are full formguides from various outlets, including important information such as running position and sectional times - information dismissed as worthless in the UK. When you have a spectacle meeting, give punters every opportunity to do the form properly so they can spend their money! 24hr declarations for Cheltenham for example are an utter joke.

Fields link

Full form link

There's a guaranteed $4 million pool for the Quaddie (pick winner of last four races), so time to do my homework......

the secret list of suspicious tennis players

According to Swedish website, svd.se, this is the list of players the Tennis Integrity Unit keep a close eye on, due to previous matches of interest....

The Black List
Philipp Kohlschreiber
Potito Starace
Andreas Seppi
Fabio Fognini
Janko Tipsarevic
Michael Llodra
Nikolay Davydenko
Teymuraz Gabashvili
Victor Crivoi
Christophe Rochus
Oscar Hernandez
Yevgeny Korolev
Filippo Volandri
Wayne Odesnik
Victoria Azarenka
Agnieszka Radwanska
Francesca Schiavone
Sara Errani
Maria Kirilenko
Kateryna Bondarenko


... And 21 on the warning list: Brian Dabul, Eduardo Scwhank, Jeremy Chardy, Simone Bolelli, Lukasz Kubot *, Carlos Berlocq, Igor Kunitsyn, Andrei Golubev *, Alex Bogomolov, Somdev Devvar-man *, Steve Darcis, Marin Cilic, Flavio Cipolla, Ivo Karlovic, Viktor Troicki, Flavia Pennetta, Roberta Vinci, Virginie Razzano, Romina Oprandi, Dominika Cibulkova, Eleni Daniilidou. * Participating in this year's Stockholm Open

For the full article, run this link through Google…

Dig deep and strike hard when corruption's around

A couple of big cases in racing around the world this week. Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Richard Dutrow Jr has received a 10 year ban in the state of New York for repeated drug offences. It sounds harsh, but this is a trainer who has moved from state to state over the years, copping a lot of positive drug tests.

Dutrow receives ten-year suspension in New York

by Frank Angst

New York regulators have had it with trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.

After determining two violations occurred late last year and citing a long list of previous violations, the New York State Racing and Wagering Board (NYSRWB) suspended Dutrow’s license for ten years at its meeting on Wednesday.

“As far as I’m concerned, game over,” said NYSRWB Chairman John Sabini. “Let this be a lesson to other people in the business who have had repeated, repeated violations.”

Dutrow’s most recent problems followed a positive drug test for the pain-killing drug butorphanol in Fastus Cactus after he won the third race on Nove…

clanger from Australian bookmaker

I reckon they might declare 'palpable error' on this one. It (Facile Tigre) won the last race at Caulfield overnight.


Cheers to @atthepicnics for sending that one through.

Quest for legality

Even more Sportingbet activity in the news since my recent post. Seems I put the mockers on the deal with Ladbrokes, that collapsed the next day. Meanwhile, Sportingbet are ditching their Greek activity, at least via Centrebet, with notices to affiliates of upcoming blocks on players residing in Europe's most broken economy. And then today, news on the wires that Sportingbet is back in acquisition mode, buying two small Danish sportsbooks ahead of the introduction of a regulated sports betting industry in the country.

The lawyers and finance chiefs are being kept very busy....

Match-fixing update

You'd have to have been living in a cave for the past week not to have heard about the Scottish football betting scam involving some of Wayne Rooney's family. This game was suspicious from the outset and was highlighted here back in December.

The match-fixing investigation into Turkish football is experiencing some resistance. The 'holier than thou' officials implicated in the scandal want the prosecutor removed from the case because he doesn't believe their lame excuses! Typical reaction of remorseless, self-indulgent megalomaniacs who believe they are above the law.

(Note, this section has been edited since original post to correct a few things)

In cricket this week, the big story has been the trial of the Pakistan spot-fixing handler, Mazhar Majeed. The accused is wrapped up in his own ego, continually dropping names of his supposed friends and contacts, and raving on about how much power he holds over certain players. The evidence against him is damning, th…

Sportingbet in the news

It's been a busy year for Sportingbet - purchasing Australian online betting pioneer Centrebet, sponsoring the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham and hunting for a merger/buyer to expand the business.

With keen interest from the extra cautious Ladbrokes, Sportingbet have sought to offload a key part of their business which operates on shaky legal ground - Turkey. A buyer appears to have been found, with GVC ready to complete the paperwork after a few months of negotiations.

Meanwhile, with the Ladbrokes deal still progressing, Sportingbet have made moves back into America with a casino deal ahead of forecasted relaxation of sports betting bans.

And the Aussie site, sportingbet.com.au, has yet another new look, abandoning the black which was despised in the UK office, and falling more into line with the company colour scheme.

Rugby league sting has day in court

Ryan Tandy gets a mere slap on the wrist for his part in the NRL betting scandal of 2010, with the brains behind the rort yet to face the music.

Leading Sydney rugby league writer, Peter Fitzsimons has a well-deserved attack on the NRL for its reliance on gambling to survive.

Tandy's behaviour odds-on in sport that thrives on gambling

REPORTING live from the Centrebet Stadium at Penrith, we'll get back to you shortly about how wrong it is to bring in legislation to protect problem gamblers from themselves … as right now, in news brought to you by SportsTAB - wall to wall on your TV and radio coverage and even in your newspapers - we have to leave the Centrebet Panthers and Centrebet Sea Eagles, to deliver some breaking news.

Canterbury forward Ryan Tandy has been found guilty of conspiring to gain a financial advantage for others by manipulating the first scoring play in a rugby league match last year between the Bulldogs and the North Queensland Cowboys.

I KNOW, I know, hor…

No-name tennis player banned for attempted match-fixing

Anyone ever heard of David Savic? Must admit I hadn't, he was a player who plied his trade almost exclusively in the bottom tiers of the professional circuit in Futures and Challenger events, with a career-best ranking of 363.

The Tennis Integrity Unit found him guilty of trying to fix matches, being the link man between the betting syndicate and players. They must have had some pretty damning evidence to suspend him for life with a fine on top of US$100k - more money than he'd have made in his entire career.

David Savic Anti-Corruption Disciplinary Hearing

Player banned for life and fined US$100,000 for three violations under the Uniform Tennis Anti-Corruption Program

Serbian tennis player David Savic has been banned from the sport for life and fined US$100,000 after being found guilty of offenses under the Uniform Tennis Anti-Corruption Program.

Mr Savic was found guilty of three charges under Article D of the 2010 Uniform Tennis Anti-Corruption Program, namely:

Contriv…

Aidan O'Brien - genius or fool?

There’s no denying that champion Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien is good at his trade, you only have to look at his record to recognise that. But then again, if you were looking after a never-ending production line of bluebloods bought or bred by some of the wealthiest men in Europe, wouldn’t you fancy yourself to win a few decent races?

This is a guy who never has to worry about grinding out winners in the bottom tier of racing, just to put food on the table or hang onto some owners. He never has to fight against owners who want to move to a bigger stable promising fame and fortune, or don’t agree with his methods. Just imagine how long O’Brien would last if he was trainer for Nathan Tinkler and Patinack Farm?

He has a bottomless pit of resources, and it matters little if one of his promising horses doesn’t quite measure up – they’ll just be lined as pacemaking fodder for the next potential superstar in the stable. It’s all about producing stallions for them – a friend of mine bought…