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The Melbourne Cup 2025 preview - Summary

This is the fourth and final piece of my Melbourne Cup preview. See links below for the rest of the preview.


The Lexus Melbourne Cup 2025
Of AU$10,910,000
Group 1 Handicap for 3yo and up.
Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne
1500 local time, 0400 GMT

Earlier pieces with runner-by-runner comments
The Visitors - The Expats - The Locals

SUMMARY

Weather - this is the big talking point. Monday and Tuesday will be wet in Melbourne, but are we talking a gentle soak or a proper storm? Opinions vary and every time I look at the BOM forecast (Bureau of Meteorology), it seems to have changed a bit. Accordingly, the track manager has decided to leave the watering, meaning the track will end up in the Firm 2 range on Sunday (high of 30C) before the rain arrives. Flemington drains very well, the only timing we need to worry about is during the meeting - that's when it soaks into the hoof marks and leads to the track chopping up.

At this point, I'm assuming a Firm 2 on Sunday, Soft 5 at the start of the meeting on Tuesday (1045am) and Good 4 by the time of the Cup (1500). If that's the case, it shouldn't negatively affect any runner. Latest forecast has no rain during the day, so we're going with Good 4.

The barrier draw hasn't changed much for me. Absurde once again gets an inside draw, Changingoftheguard probably goes forward from the outside gate and sets the pace. Goodie Two Shoes slides across with them and we're likely to get a genuine pace. Al Riffa probably gets caught wide with topweight, will make it an even tougher task.

We've had two massive longshots in the past decade, include Knight's Choice last year. Surely not again.


BETTING

Betfair odds at time of publishing (back/lay) - Sunday 1700GMT

Al Riffa 9.4/9.6
Buckaroo 10.5/11
Arapaho 60/65
Vauban 27/28
Chevalier Rose 50/55
Presage Nocturne 9.6/9.8
Middle Earth 50/55
Meydaan 21/22
Absurde 22/23
Flatten The Curve 24/25
Land Legend 90/95
Smokin Romans 130/140
Changingoftheguard 110/120
Half Yours 8.8/9
More Felons 50/55
Onesmoothoperator 30/32
Furthur 30/32
Parchment Party 75/80
Athabascan 110/120
Goodie Two Shoes 48/50
River Of Stars 18.5/19
Royal Supremacy 36/38
Torranzino 38/40
Valiant King 8.8/9


SELECTIONS


This is one of those races where by the time you've gone through every runner, you've changed your pick eight times. In order of preference...

Presage Nocturne was a big eyecatcher at Caulfield and now meets the winner 2.5kg better off. He's better suited at this trip, will just keep on going and won't be bothered if there's give in the ground. This was always their target, and we've seen the likes of Americain and Dunaden follow similar paths.

Valiant King down the bottom gets a chance to sit comfortably midfield from gate 10 rather than 23 and three wide last year. Since the blinkers went on two starts ago, he is flying. Jye McNeil won this race a few years ago on Twilight Payment and is excellent value for a lightweight rider.

River Of Stars is super honest and a great winning chance. I doubt she has the killer punch with late speed but will still be going strong at the end. Is right in the mix.

Furthur is a talented 3yo UK stayer with strong enough form to match his light weight. Not as strong as English St Leger winner Scandinavia, but that's why that horse was given 55.5kg before not travelling. Jockey Michael Dee has a reputation for winning G1s at big prices, should do no work in the run.

Goodie Two Shoes will go under a lot of people's radar. Her form this summer has been strong in weaker races, a deliberate strategy to keep her down in the weights. Connections are too shrewd to write her off.

Half Yours I worry about at the end but he should have very little to do in the run. Won too well at Caulfield to dismiss, gets his chance here.

People outside Australia will wonder about the number of tips - it's all about the exotics in the Cup and potential five or six-figure payouts from the trifecta and First 4. With Flexi betting, allowing punters to have a small % of a big ticket.

Tips:

6 Presage Nocturne
24 Valiant King
21 River Of Stars
17 Furthur
20 Goodie Two Shoes
14 Half Yours

with the following going into my wider multis

5 Chevalier Rose
9 Absurde
10 Flatten The Curve
16 Onesmoothoperator
22 Royal Supremacy
23 Torranzino


Best of luck punters and remember it's just one race - always bet with what you can afford.

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