Sport is made for betting

If you ever want to witness how much punters over-react to media speculation, take a look at a Next Manager market on Betfair. The current Next Republic of Ireland Manager has had nine men matched at below 3.5, four or five of them at odds-on. Mug punters just jump on the bandwagon blindly and prices just keep on going down to ridiculous numbers. And then the Irish press have the gall to say it's all just a field day for bookmakers when they are the ones fuelling the fire! Cash in on the over-reactions - lay the short prices, no need to get involved laying someone at 100. Trappatoni crashed from 400 down to 1.73 on Betfair within 24hrs, and now he's back out to about 10. Think of the facts - Ireland have no need to appoint a manager any time soon. Apart fronm the friendly next week against Brazil (the squad has already been picked so no point hiring a new manager to take charge of a team he didn't select), they don't have a match scheduled until September. So there'...

Women Maria Sharapova has been in dominant form this fortnight, flogging Henin in straight sets and then taking care of a broken-down Jankovic in the semi-final. She needed to be on her game early on, facing former no.1 Davenport in R2, so to maintain that form for a fortnight is an excellent effort. Her shoulder injury worries of last year seem to be gone and her serve is now a major threat again. Ana Ivanovic hasn't looked in quite as dominant form, but she has reached another Grand Slam final. A 0-6 start against Hantuchova wasn't promising, but she turned that around to progress to the final. Melbourne is like a second home to her, she has family there and the locals have really taken to her. The slate currently stands at 2-2, with no match going the distance (one injury retirement in 2nd set). The odds are heavily favouring Sharapova, a little too far in my opinion. Odds of 1.25 (1/4) on Betfair, represent an 80% likelihood of her winning - it can't possibly be that o...

What a surprise. Inside an ultra-greedy bank, one of its traders gets way in above his head and loses the firm £3.65 billion, far surpassing the Nick Leeson effort in the early 90s with Barings Bank. The only thing that surprises me about this is that there are not more cases of this. People with addictions can be found in all walks of life. Too many people with addictive personalities get into gambling when it really is something they should steer well clear of. And all financial trading is is another form of gambling.... This trader has speculated, got it wrong, cooked the books to cover his tracks while he gambled more to solve the problem. And then the hole he dug in the first place got worse...and worse... and worse. The biggest mistake people make when betting is trying to chase losses - all it will do is send you to the poor house mighty quickly. Discipline is the most important trait for betting. Sometimes it just isn't your day - recognise it early and stop for the day. Wa...

There is an excellent series of articles this week in the Racing Post about what to look for in the paddock - i.e. when horses are parading before a race. Membership is required but it is free. Once you have signed up, click on the Racing Header, go to News - Cuttings Library, and search for 'paddock watching'. Assessing whether a horse is fit is not the easiest the thing to learn, but once you know what you are doing, it should make a big difference to the success of your betting.

The late night epic against Baghdatis was no excuse - the simple fact is his gameplan is not good enough to match the likes of Djokovic. That grip with heavy topspin on the forehand may have served him well for 10yrs but he needs to find the killer shot to finish points. The younger, stronger blokes like Djokovic will eat him for breakfast every time. Considering the betting was 1.2 Djokovic before the match, punters and bookies are onto it as well, at least against the top players. Watch for anomalies in prices against lesser players at other events. He can still beat up the small fry, but anyone with a decent game will really trouble him.

Early in the fifth set of the Australian Open clash, over £10 million has been traded on Betfair. It is after 4am in Melbourne, yet most of the crowd are still there. Over £500k has been matched on Hewitt at 1.01-1.03, when he was 5-1 up in the fourth set and had two chances to serve out the match, with at least one match point. His serve keeps failing when in position to win the match, he did it again in the tiebreak to go two sets all. The betting has swung heavily both ways, the lowest price on Baghdatis to date has been 1.28. £200 has been bet on the Cypriot at over 100/1, with a top price of 300. An amazing betting contest - sport is made for betting!

For some third-round Aus Open tennis betting value, read this from one of my columns.

I have written betting previews for tennis Grand Slams since 2000. To read my previews for the 2008 Australian Open, see them here at Punting Ace.

Getting the Best of Grand Slam Betting and Tennis Trading By Scott Ferguson originally published at www.puntingace.com Tennis Betting on an Exchange and The Grand Slams Betting on tennis has changed markedly in recent years. Once upon a time, bookies would offer a selection of matches, then close all markets when the match was scheduled to begin. Now in the technological age, we have live scoring from most tournaments, live television coverage and in-play betting. For punters, this means it's a whole new ball game.... To my mind, the best thing about betting on tennis is the live action. A two-runner market which can vary markedly on a single line call or unforced error offers enormous opportunities for the sharp-minded punter. But more about that later. Outright betting The French Open and Wimbledon are the two Slams with the least number of genuine winning chances. This is due to the specialist nature of the respective playing surfaces. Hardcourt is more of a 'middle-ground...