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Showing posts from September, 2014

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes preview

It's rare to have a Sunday feature race meeting in Australia, but on Grand Final weekend in Melbourne, it's a wise move. The sharp blokes at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting, have chipped in with a brief preview of today's big race, the Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup. It's a long name but as of this year, it's a huge charity day with many good causes set to benefit from it.

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Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup
Race 7 - 4:40PM, Caulfield
Group 1, 1400 metres


Speed Map



As our map shows there is good, genuine speed expected here with both Sweet Idea & Sistine Demon wanting to lead. Of these I expect Sistine Demon to be the likely one to cross and lead outright. The others should be able to lob into their positions besides outsider Alma’s Fury, who if he goes forward will be trapped wide facing the breeze. Dissident looks the get a great map finding the 1x1 box seat with cover.

Key H…

Cambridgeshire preview

One of the autumn's great handicaps, as previewed by Chris Day, @chrisday100.

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The Betfred Cambridgeshire
9f, Track Good.
Newmarket Rowley Mile course


One of the great Autumn flat handicaps, the Cambridgeshire, run over the unusual distance of nine furlongs, has thrown up some top class performers over the years.

A couple of years ago, Mukhadram was beaten into 5th from a mark of 101, almost two stone below the rating he achieved this year and, back in the mid 90s, Halling made a mockery of the race before going on to prove a Group 1 performer over 10 furlongs.

So the question is, do we have a Mukhadram or Halling in Saturday’s renewal or will the race go to a hard knocking handicapper, the type who can show his best in a fast run straight 9 furlong big field handicap?

John Gosden, who trained Halling before he went to Godolphin, houses the favourite, Cornrow, who after making all over a mile, dropped back in trip at Ascot and almost got back up …

Football Form Labs weekend preview

Not getting enough of your football betting? Put some stats behind your gut instincts and work out when to really lump on. One of the very best in the business is Football Form Labs who have shared their wisdom with a preview of some of this week's action. You can also follow Football Form Labs on Twitter, @footballformlab

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Football Form Labs provide the most effective football betting software on the market with the ability to analyse games both pre-match and in-play across 50 different leagues. You can also generate your own models and see the statistical impact players have when they are missing. Until the end of September, they have a great deal for new subscribers!

Take advantage of these huge savings to get Form Lab Black for just £40 per month or as little as £300 per annum. – Try Form Lab Black here with codes FLBMONTHLYPROMO (for a monthly subscription), FLBQUARTERPROMO (quarterly sub discount) or FLBANNUALPROMO (annual sub discount)

If you p…

Silver Cambridgeshire preview

Newmarket at the end of the season means big, nasty handicaps such as the Cambridgeshire and the Cesarewitch. This weekend it's the former and Chris Day, @chrisday100 starts his weekend work with the consolation race.

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The Silver Cambridgeshire (Shadwell Farm Handicap)
1700 Newmarket 1m1f

The Silver Cambridgeshire is the most recent of the consolation races devised to accommodate horses not rated high enough to get into Saturday’s main race but would grace most Saturday afternoons such is the quality of runner the race now attracts.

Favourite looks like being William Haggas’ Mange All, an improving three year old who appeared to find 10 furlongs stretching him slightly when second from a 5lb lower mark behind a progressive horse last time. Previously a winner over a mile, this intermediate distance could suit him nicely and he’s sure to go well but the market hasn’t missed him and I’ll give him a swerve on that basis.

John Gosden has a great record in these…

JRA Cup preview

Another feature race preview from Moonee Valley night racing on Friday, not with one of the black type 3yo races but with a traditional spring riches lead-up race, this time featuring the new people's horse, The Cleaner, who just jumps to the front and runs his rivals ragged, bringing back memories for my favourite ever horse, the one who got me hooked on racing, the mighty Vo Rogue.

Enough reminiscing, it's assignment number two for Mitch Nicholls, give him some support via @MitchNicholls1.

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Alternate Railway JRA Cup
Moonee Valley 2040m G3
Race 6 9:15pm


Fantastic race! The speed comes from out wide with The Cleaner pushing forward from barrier 10. Mourinho will come across and settle somewhere close to the speed from 12 then I’d suggest Lord Durante will hold his spot from gate 4 perhaps with Big Memory close behind.

1 The Cleaner $3.60 (TAB fixed-odds prices quoted): This bold-front running gelding is in career-best form, stringing together two …

Rosehill preview

The early spring pace of Sydney racing continues with three feature races at Rosehill on Saturdday, leading into next weekend's Epsom and Metropolitan at Randwick. We've drafted in some more new blood to preview the meeting, The Punters Show, a Sydney-based group of experts who provide plenty of content and numerous options for all levels of keen punters. Follow them via @puntersshow or visit their website PuntersShow.

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Punters Show Preview
27th September Rosehill


Weather

At the time of writing this (Thursday afternoon in Sydney) we were told there would be light showers for most of today and then maybe some drizzle until Saturday. All in all that should still give us a perfect racing surface.

Track: Predicted Good/Dead Rail +3m

We were at Rosehill two weeks ago for Golden Rose Day where the rail was in the “True” position and the fence was a no go zone! The normal ‘reposition’ has been done seeing the rail moved to the +3m mark. This is the ‘fair…

Moir Stakes preview

The Melbourne spring is starting to get serious now with the Group 1 Moir Stakes being run on Friday night at Moonee Valley, to keep out of the way of Saturday's AFL Grand Final.

Making his first appearance on the blog is budding young writer, Mitch Nicholls, @mitchnicholls1. Welcome aboard!

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Moir Stakes preview
G1 1200m
Moonee Valley 8.15pm Melbourne time, 11.15am UK


Speed Map



Only a small field of five to contest the 1200m Moir Stakes. What it lacks in size, makes up in class! Every horse should get a good run, and we all but rule out horses getting blocked for runs, so every horse gets there chance.

Lankan Rupee: On the surface he was very disappointing here first-up beaten a head by Angelic Light, when he started 1.22. He went hard in front (outside the leader), and was brave to the line, whereas the mare got the soft run in behind and managed to nab him in the closing stages. He’s always been a horse who excels over 1200m, with wins in the G1 Newmarket Han…

Underwood Stakes preview

The smart chaps at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting, website, have finished their analysis of this week's Group 1 race in Melbourne.

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Underwood Stakes
Caulfield
Race 7 - 4:00PM G1, 1800 METRES

Speed Map



As our map shows, a lack of speed is evident in the race with Star Rolling the only on pace runner in our grid. This of course has the potential to be identified and taken advantage of by the astute jockeys in the field, with Lidari the likely one digging up from his inside gate to make company on the speed. Don’t be surprised if a horse is ridden completely against their historical pattern and previous pace ratings and take up the lead. Look out for race tactics notifications from the stewards before the race.

Key Historical Factors:
There are only three interesting historical factors been identified in this race which have been categorised into two groups:
INTO THE RACE:
- No mare has won since 1985 (and was run at 2000m back then).
- Past four winner…

NFC South preview

More from Ian Steven, @deevo82. Apologies, these should have gone up last week and thus prices may have changed.

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NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Carolina surprised many people last season by winning the NFC South. The Falcons and also the Saints were perceived by many to be the better football team going into 2013 but tough defense and some good quarterback play from Cam Newton who has started to display some maturity propelled Carolina to the top of the division. Head coach Ron Rivera, much maligned for being conservative and perceived to be on the hot seat, turned himself into a riverboat gambler as the conservative coach displayed an aggressive style of play calling which the fans took to in Charlotte.

Newton has started the season with some sore ribs and on the bench and needs to get himself fit and healthy as the Panthers have a powerful running game, including the large quarterback into the mix. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are a powerful one-two…

NFC North preview

More from Ian Steven, @deevo82. Apologies, these should have gone up last week and thus prices may have changed.

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NFC North

Green Bay Packers

This is going to be a tough division this year as there are three teams with a lot of talent that will keep things very competitive. The good news for Green Bay is that they have the best quarterback in a bunch of good signal callers. Aaron Rodgers is judged just outside the elite Manning/Brady level and has already demonstrated his worth with a league MVP season as well as a Super Bowl ring.

Whilst Rodgers has a quick release and quick feet – his biggest knock is his durability and that is where the Pack’s season lies. The Cal graduate went down last year with a broken collarbone, missing seven games and coming back for the week 17 clash with Chicago to win the division with a touchdown pass to Randall Cobb with under a minute remaining.

The good news for the Wisconsin franchise is that they have finally found a feat…

Football Form Labs - Big Weekend preview

Football betting has evolved in recent years, it is big business now and gut instinct and opinion have mostly been replaced by databases and algorithmic trading models. Are you missing out by letting your heart rule your head? One of the very best of those is Football Form Labs who have shared their wisdom with a preview of some of this week's action. You can also follow Football Form Labs on Twitter, @footballformlab

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Football Form Labs provide the most effective football betting software on the market with the ability to analyse games both pre-match and in-play across 50 different leagues. You can also generate your own models and see the statistical impact players have when they are missing. Until the end of September, they have a great deal for new subscribers!

Take advantage of these huge savings to get Form Lab Black for just £40 per month or as little as £300 per annum. – Try Form Lab Black here with codes FLBMONTHLYPROMO (for a monthly subscrip…

Golden Rose preview

Sydney's big race of the spring, the $1m Group 1 De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose Stakes, takes place tomorrow at Rosehill. The sharp fellas at Premium Punting (@premiumpunting, website) have taken the time to share their expert preview of the big race. Even if Aussie racing is not your bag, take a look at the detail and analysis they use to form their preview - important elements of form study to improve your punting!

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Golden Rose Stakes
Group 1, 1600m
Rosehill Race 7,
tomorrow at 4:25pm Sydney time, 0725 London.


Analysts are faced with an immediate conundrum as 9/15 come out of the same race that was on a heavy surface and only Bachman who resumes didn't compete on a heavy rated track at their last start.

Rosehill has had quite some time to dry over the past few days and the weather on the day predicts no showers, so by this race we may have a Dead 5 or Slow 6 at the worst.

Speed Map


Click on the Speed Map to enlarge

Speed looks to be a moderat…

NFC East preview

Ian Steven's divisional previews now switch to the NFC - first up, it's the East. Follow him on @deevo82.

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NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

NFC East – my division, let’s get this on.

I felt last year that the Eagles would have a great offense and a woeful defense and I was right – but I thought Mike Vick would be the featured QB in Chip Kelly’s fast-paced system. I was wrong as Nick Foles surprised everyone by taking on the mantle when Vick went down to a hamstring injury to the Giants to post one of the best season’s by a signal caller in NFL history with a 119 rating, throwing 27 touchdowns to only two picks.

Part of the reason that Foles excelled was the depth of talent on the rest of the offense. Shady McCoy is the most electrifying player in the NFL since Barry Sanders and he led the league in rushing. Opening holes were three of the best players at their position in the NFL. Jason Peters, Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce are all blue chip talents and simply b…

AFC West preview

More NFL divisional analysis from the astute Ian Steven, @deevo82.

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AFC West

Denver Broncos

The Broncos were an offensive juggernaut last season until they came up against the road hump that was Seattle in the Super Bowl. It certainly helps any team to have the best quarterback to have ever played the game taking the field and in Peyton Manning the Mile High club have a first ballot hall of fame candidate.

In fact – I probably don’t need to elaborate too much – they have Peyton = division winners. Just as key to Denver’s success is left tackle Ryan Clady. The all-pro lineman went down with a Lis franc injury last year and he was sorely missed in the Super Bowl as Manning was mauled by a pressure heavy Seahawks defense. The rest of the line is average but Manning is so good at reading defences and releasing quickly that it does not become a factor.

Losing Knowshon Moreno in free agency was a blow to Denver’s running game and Eric Decker’s departure to New Jer…

Aviva Premiership preview

A new face on the blog this week, to mark the start of the English domestic rugby season. Danny Till, @dannyjt10, has done the hard yards and produced this excellent piece of work. His blog's a bit thin on content, a few more readers might make him more active...

Back Bath for Premiership Glory
by Danny Till.
Original article posted here.

This weekend sees the return of domestic Rugby Union as the Aviva Premiership hits our screens, and this season has the potential to be the best in the history of the competition. With nine months of pulsating action, hard hits, scorching tries and gut wrenching tension in store as the major powers try to wrestle the title away from Northampton. Here is my betting guide to the 2014/15 season.

It is likely to be a similar scenario at the top of the table this season to the one we have seen for the last five years. Saracens, Northampton and Leicester will all be strong candidates to take home silverware. They are the powerhouses of English rugby an…

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes preview

Courtesy of the sharp operators at @PremiumPunting, it's the first big mile race of the Melbourne spring. Formerly known as the Feehan Stakes, it's now named after the long-term owner for Bart Cummings, Dato' Tan Chin Nam. Find out more about the work of PremiumPunting on their website.

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Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Moonee Valley, Group II, 1600m
Saturday, 4pm local (0700 BST)


Although run a week earlier than previous this season, as always it will still be a key race to look back upon when analysing the major races in the spring.

Speed Map



As expected in any race that involves The Cleaner you can expect a very genuine speed. He obviously produced some immensely fast mid-race sectionals when leading with company to his outside by 7-8L to the rest of the field. Doubt he will replicate those tactics up in trip in an inferior race but he will still roll along at a quick tempo. Star Rolling & Mourinho to be in the second line pairing up.

K…

AFC South preview

More shrewd advice from NFL devotee/tragic Ian Steven, @deevo82.

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AFC South

Houston Texans


I was convinced that last year was going to be “the year” for the Texans as they looked balanced on offense and defense and an AFC Title game against the Broncos looked a likely scenario. Much like the ending of The Crying Game – boy, did I get that one wrong.

The Texans finished with the worst record in the NFL which has turned out to be both a good and a bad thing. The drop off in play can be attributed to injuries and most importantly, the loss of mojo of one-time starter Matt Schaub. The former Falcons signal caller suffered from a couple of early interceptions that led to touchdowns and his confidence quickly eroded. As is the way in the NFL – a team is only as good as its quarterback and the Texans endured a 14 game losing streak which prompted owner Bob McNair to give head coach Gary Kubiak his jotters with Bill O’Brien coming in from Penn State to reverse their fo…