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Showing posts from October, 2015

Breeders' Cup Sprint preview

One of the great stories of the Breeders' Cup will be if the unfashionable Runhappy wins the Breeders' Cup Sprint. It's a fascinating story, read more below.

This highly detailed preview comes courtesy of geegeez.co.uk. To find the full detail of their comprehensive Breeders Cup previews, click here.

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6.50pm GMT Breeders Cup Sprint

Key Trends (31 renewals to date)
 25 of the 31 winners had 5+ seasonal races
 At least one 6f win AND a sharp run at 7f in the last 12 months is a solid recent angle
 8 of last 12 had a 35-63 day layoff (though this is not a strong angle)
 28 of 31 had won a Graded stakes that season
 All of the last 21 winners had at least a 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
 16 of the last 22 had 2+ 6f wins that season
 16 of the last 21 showed a bullet workout leading up to the race
 10 of the last 17 hit Beyer top LTO (interesting, though not solid, angle)
 16 of31 winners were based in Southern California, including 3 of the last …

Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf preview

More from the Breeders Cup, this time the Filly and Mare Turf from American racing form student, Jon da Silva, @creamontop.

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Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Group 1, 1mile 3/16s, US$1.8m
1310 local, 1810 GMT, 0710 AEDST


With the Nassau, Yorkshire Oaks, l'Opera, St Leger and Champions Day F&M all going to 3 yo fillies and Found almost doing the colts in the Irish and UK Champion Stakes and Legatissimo with claims to be the best, Legatissimo is the one to beat. Euro 2nd tier hosses like Cannock Chase, Curvy, Flintshire, Secret Gesture & Mondialiste have all crossed the line first in North America. She is well drawn [3] inside to stalk likely pacesetter Sentiero Italia [2]. The contrary view would be that at a mile the 3yo fillies have been found out to a degree with Esoterique, Amazing Maria and Integral handing out the slappings. In the Matron which Legatissimo won easily Amazing Maria did not give her running. Legatissimo has lost 3 of her 6 races…

Charlie Hall Chase preview

October's a funny time for racing in Britain but jumps season really gets going with the Charlie Hall Chase. This year, be thankful we actually know what distance the race is being run over.

Taking up the challenge is the astute Nick Palfrey, @8palfrey8, and you can read more of his work on his blog.

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Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase
Grade 2, £100,000, Three Miles 45y
1505 local 0205 GMT

Saturday's renewal of Wetherby's greatest race has a small but very select field for the second consecutive season - In fact I can't remember off the top of my head two better renewals. Menorah attempts win the race again and faces a tough task with his 10lb penalty. Yes, he had to give away the same sort of weight last season but the two horses who benefited the most, Wayward Prince and Medermit, haven't the class that Cue Card, Dynaste and Ballynagour have. These three high class animals are most advantaged by the penalty values in tomorrow's contest wh…

Breeders Cup Classic preview

The biggest race of all at the Breeders' Cup is the big finale, the Breeders' Cup Classic. G1 winners galore, but best of all, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah versus the Irish 3yo mile star, Gleneagles.

Taking the reins is international racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @worldracingluke.

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Breeders’ Cup Classic
Keeneland (United States of America)
Ground: Fast (Dirt)
Race 11 G1 3yo+ 2000m Dirt $5,000,000

Odds are Best Priced at Time of Writing

1 Tonalist (8/1) (United States of America): Model of consistency that never runs a bad race. Famous for being the victor of the 2014 G1 Belmont Stakes, California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid. Clear 2nd to Honor Code in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap in June and his latest G1 runs include a never nearer 3rd in the G1 Whitney Stakes and an absolute romp in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes for the 2nd year in a row. Got way too far back in this last year and absolutely stormed home for 5th, probably unlucky i…

JNWine.com Champion Chase

It's not just flat racing exciting everyone this weekend, the traditionalists have their jumps racing to warm to as well. Over in the north of Ireland, it's off to Down Royal for the Champion Chase, as previewed by regular contributor David Stephens, @DaveStevos.

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JNWine.com Champion Chase
Grade 1, Down Royal, Three Miles
€140,000
1440 local


Saturday is the day that the National Hunt season feels like it really gets under way, and some of the discipline's biggest stars will be strutting their stuff on both sides of the Irish Sea. The Champion Chase at Down Royal has traditionally been a good pointer for bigger days later in the season and past winners include classy grey The Listener, the enigmatic Beef Or Salmon and of course the legendary Kauto Star.

Road To Riches took the prize last year, but he isn't back to defend his crown. Unfortunately only four of the eleven contenders that were left in yesterday have stood their ground, but at …

Myer Classic preview

Amongst the Group 1s at Flemington on Derby Day is the fillies and mares edition, or what the Yanks might call the Distaff (a word seemingly exclusive to them).

Welcome aboard to Brent making his blog debut. Follow him on @HV_racingpundit to catch more of his astute discussion.

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Myer Classic
Group 1, AU$500,000, 1600m
1635 local, 0535 GMT

Form guide
Odds Comparison

The Myer Classic which is run over the mile brings together the top fillies and mares from around the country. Since it was first run as an all females race (1988) there has never been a 3YO filly take out and a few gun fillies have tried. The great Alinghi back in 2004 went down by a head to Miss Potential and since then only one other filly has even attempted this feat. That brings me to my first horse.

STAY WITH ME
I must admit that I have being following this horse all prep, highlighted as my Thousand Guineas horse weeks I advance. I was not concerned when she never figured in the Thousa…

Breeders Cup Mile preview

It has been a few years since the Breeders Cup has ventured outside of California, but it's back to Keeneland for 2015. It's the touring party of European raiders that add the cream and intrigue to this event, and the Mile has been a regular source of success for them.

Taking the reins to preview the Mile is blog regular, Chris Day @chrisday100

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Breeders Cup Mile
Group 1, Turf, One Mile, US$1.8m
Saturday 1430 local, 1930 GMT, Sunday 0830 AEDST


Of all the races run at this meeting in my memory, the mile is the race which stands out as the one most suited to European horses.

Coming late in the season it is not surprising that French trainers, who traditionally shun the high summer showpieces in favour of Longchamp in October, have won the race ten times, as their best horses are generally fresher than their British and Irish counterparts.

Turf racing in the States is always viewed as the poor relation and, although American previewers seem to like…

Victoria Derby preview

Derby Day! It's here! Well, in a a day and a half anyway. The greatest raceday in the southern hemisphere, with black type racing from start to finish. and to preview the eponymous race, it's over to the experts at Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS.

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AAMI Victoria Derby
Group 1 for 3yo, AU$1.5m, 2500m
1550 local, 0450 GMT

Form guide
Odds comparison

PRS Speed Map



There is very good speed present with Ayers Rock likely to be adamant of crossing and leading. With only a 200m run to the tight first turn there will be a tight battle for the spots behind him. This leaves the ones drawn wider to be disadvantaged. It is expected they will bowl along at least at a genuine speed.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



As you can see on o…

W.S. Cox Plate preview

Cox Plate day is one of the great days of Australian racing. In the 'fishbowl' that is Moonee Valley, it's a unique test for elite thoroughbreds with the crowd closer than any other major track in the country. Last year signified the arrival of the internationals. Not the first time they'd come, but the first time they'd cracked it. Now it can be done, will the floodgates open?

Once again, for premium Aussie racing, you need premium analysis and that comes from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS.

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William Hill Cox Plate
Group 1, 2040m, AU$3,000,000
1740 local, 0740 BST
Form guide


Looks a very high level edition of the race with the majority of runners already producing a performance rating above the historical benchmark required to win the race.

PRS Speed Map



We have quite a high predicted pace rating for this race, even if excluding the presence of The Cleaner in the race who is sure to lead. 2/3 runs this campaign he has led at to…

QIPCO Champion Stakes preview

Richest race of British Champions Day is the QIPCO Champion Stakes. The middle distance star of the year might have headed to the Arc instead, but the favourite here is a genuine star.

Taking the reins is international racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke.

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QIPCO Champion Stakes
Group 1, 10f, £1.3m
1505 local, 0105 AEDST


1 Air Pilot (50/1) (United Kingdom): Been a progressive type this year. Winner of the G3 International Stakes at the Curragh and was favourite for the G1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis - Bayerisches in Germany but was a withdrawal at the starting gate after injuring himself. Made a good return two weeks ago however in the G2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp running a nice third. This is a bit harder however and is maybe better on fast ground.

2 Fascinating Rock (16/1) (Ireland): Good horse who runs his best races with the sting out of the ground which will suit him here. Three wins from five starts this season in the LR Heritage Stakes, G3 Moo…

British Champion Sprint Stakes preview

It's Champions Day at Ascot with more money on the card* than the rest of the Flat season put together. One of the great races on the card is the Sprint, as previewed by Calum Swan Law, appearing courtesy of @EIBloodstock. Read more of his work on the latest edition of his blog.

*not actually true, but wouldn't be far off

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British Champion Sprint Stakes
Group One, 6f, £600k
1320 local, 2320 AEDST


Aeolus- Steady sprinter who recorded a Group Three victory when beating the useful Mattmu in the Chipchase at Newcastle. Not been so good the last two however and was readily put in his place by Eastern Impact here last time. Very much an outside chance in this company.

Coulsty- Son of Kodiac, who tries today's trip for the first time since taking a weak Group Three at Deauville in August last year. That was on very soft ground and having been campaigned over seven furlongs for most of this campaign he may find things happening a stride too quickly cutting…

Caulfield Cup preview

Spring is in the air and we're right into the heart of the spring racing carnival. While it's not the race most of the internationals set themselves for, four foreign runners (Taufan's Melody, All The Good, Dunaden and Admire Rakti) have been successful in the past 20 years, and three winners in the last seven.

For the pace and overlays preview, it's over to the shrewd analysts from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS

If I get the opportunity, I'll do a more detailed runner-by-runner version.

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BMW Caulfield Cup
Group 1, 2400m, AU$3,000,000
1740 local time, 0740 BST
Form guide

It looks a fantastic edition of the cup with nine horses present (including scratchings) already producing a performance rating >1L above the historical benchmark figure required to win this race. This is a rare occurrence as the runner that usually wins this race produces a PB rating on the day.

Speed Map



Note: this map does include the emergencies in i…

An ‘alternative’ three to follow for the 2015/16 National Hunt season...

In the transition between Flat and National Hunt seasons, you'll see plenty of Horses to Follow guides and Stable Tours being plugged in the papers, books and blogs. And so many of them focus on the big stables, for obvious reasons. But if you want to look a little wider for your winners, and let's face it, they all pay the same unless you're betting big numbers, then Ben Aitken's guide is worth a read. In addition to his 20 To Follow, linked from the bottom of this article, he had a handful which just missed out, so he shared them here.

Ben's site, Narrowing The Field, is a tremendous resource for National Hunt racing, with Trends, Systems and Alternative Analysis - it's a welcome deviation from the mainstream coverage. And you can follow Ben on Twitter @Narrowthefield

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An ‘alternative’ three to follow for the 2015/16 National Hunt season...

BON ENFANT (W Greatrex) - This 4yo Saint Des Saints gelding made a striking impression on racec…

Caulfield Guineas preview

Here we go with four Saturdays of sensational racing in Melbourne, kicking off with Caulfield Guineas day. It's right up there with Derby Day in terms of quality, every race is black type, and only the 2yo race is just Listed.

Premium racing needs premium analysis, so it's over to Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS with the preview!

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Caulfield Guineas
G1 3yo 1600m
$1m Expected Track: Good 3
1740 local time, 0740 BST

Form guide
Interesting Historical Factors
- 11/20 winners had first attempt at 1600m.
- 16/20 winners last start <1600m.
- 15/23 drawn gate 4 or inside.
- 4/23 won from double-digit gate, 0/30 from gate 14 or wider.
- 1/23 has finished further back than 4th at previous start.
- 12/22 last start winners.

PRS Speed Map



Like most editions of this great race we expect to at least have genuine speed with Dal Cielo likely to be crossing and leading. It is expected jockey Craig Williams on longshot Kentucky Flyer will allow this to…

NRL Grand Final preview

Both winter codes conclude this weekend and the northern spectacle takes place at ANZ Stadium in Sydney between..... two Queensland teams!

He might only preview a few games for the year, but take note when he does. With the shrewd analysis of the big shebang, it's Chris Ryan, @imdabomb82.

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2015 NRL Grand Final Preview

The 2015 season brought 192 regular season matches, eight finals series games, another QLD Origin series victory and will culminate in what should be a pulsating Grand Final. The season had the predictable, in a Ricky Stuart team missing the finals series and a run of the mill drug scandal that leads to not much (the first and only time the Gold Coast Titans get mentioned in a GF preview!). Together with the more surprising, in that we got through the year without a bubbling incident, shock horror! Oh well, I guess we have the offseason for that, as well as Greg Bird getting up to whatever grub activities he normally does in his down time to k…

AFL Grand Final preview

After six months of the season, it all comes down to this, the 2015 AFL Grand Final. A team written off by most pre-season stands in the way of a Hawthorn threepeat. For the neutrals, and there will be millions of those spread around the country, and around the world (I'll be watching this year at an expat party in Las Vegas) let's hope it's a relatively close and high-scoring match.

Concluding a season of astutely-assessed previews, it's a final analysis from the sharp folk at @AFLRatings.

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2015 AFL GRAND FINAL preview,
courtesy of AFLRatings.com.au, @AFLRatings.


West Coast (finished regular season in 2nd) v Hawthorn (3rd)
Venue: MCG, Melbourne
2015 Head to Head record: West Coast 1-1 Hawthorn
Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, Min 16 Max 28


Points FOR vs Top 8 Teams
West Coast 97.3 Hawthorn 103.2
Points AGA vs Top 8 Teams
West Coast 83.6 Hawthorn 68.5

What a finale we have to the 2015 AFL Season with the two top-ranked scoring teams going head to…

Moir Stakes preview

Group 1 sprinting on Grand Final eve in Melbourne, at the night racing spectacle which is Moonee Valley.

The astute judges from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS, return with the preview.

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Moir Stakes
G1 WFA 1000m
$450,000
1945 local, 1045 BST


PRS Speed Map



As expected in almost all sprint races at this track there is very good speed on paper with three runners wanting the lead. Is more than likely that jockey Damian Lane will be adamant to cross and be the leader or be an equal leader to the outside of either Buffering or Ball Of Muscle. A fast first 400m sectional is expected.

Few runners drawn a little wide may have to shuffle back and settle further back than desired.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$22 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



Only current overlays: